All of them will be looking to take the next step on Friday. For Lancaster Catholic, that means a rematch with Middletown in the semifinals. The Crusaders hammered the Blue Raiders 41-0 in last year’s district title game.

The remaining AAAA and AAA teams are in the quarterfinal round of their brackets. Wilson takes on Central York, Penn Manor visits South Western, Manheim Central hosts Daniel Boone, Cocalico visits Susquehanna Township and Conestoga Valley travels to West York.

I’ll be blogging live from the Catholic-Middletown game, while Jeff Reinhart will be blogging from the Central-Boone  matchup . If you’re not heading to any games on Friday, you can get updates from all the playoff games involving local teams from us. Hope to see you there.

Let’s move on to the picks for this week. For the record, I went 5-2 in the first round, and my season total is at 113-30. Feel free to ooh and ahh.

AAAA

Central York (8-3) at Wilson (10-1): The Panthers have a very good running game and a Penn State recruit, Kyle Baublitz, at linebacker. All very impressive, but not enough to beat the Bulldogs. Wilson is not the powerhouse it was a year ago, when it waxed Cumberland Valley 35-7 in the district championship game, but this year’s version of the Dawgs is still very good. There’s too much balance on offense for Central York to contain. The only potential problem for Wilson is protecting the ball — that’s been the problem for the Bulldogs in the games they’ve struggled to win. If they do that, they should be fine. Give me Wilson.

Penn Manor (9-2) at South Western (10-1): This should be one of the better games in the district on Friday. Both teams have very good offenses that have posted similar numbers. The Mustangs have a good 1-2 punch in the backfield — J.R. Mummert and Levi Sager — and a good QB in Ian Smith. And their defense is statistically better than Penn Manor’s. That said, I’m taking the Comets. I think there are too many playmakers for South Western to stop; look for a big night from LaRonn Lee, the Comets’ ultimate weapon. It could be a shootout, and I think it will be close. But give me Penn Manor.

AAA

Daniel Boone (9-2) at Manheim Central (11-0): The Barons are one of two undefeated teams left in the district playoffs; AAAA top-seed Bishop McDevitt is the only other team with an unblemished record. Finding coverage of this game shouldn’t be a problem — in addition to LancSports and the Intell/New Era, there will be two other newspapers, Blue Ridge TV and WEEU-AM in the house. That’s a lot of media. At least they should see a good game; Boone has one of the top quarterback in the district in Jon Montiero and the best defense in Berks County (191.6 yards per game). The Blazers have put up some sick numbers on offense, averaging 332 yards and 30 points per game. But Central’s no slouch, either. The Barons allow just 174 yards and 7.6 points per game on defense and have the L-L League’s top offense, averaging 42 points and 383 yards per game. Something’s got to give here, and I think it’s going to be Daniel Boone. Historically, the Barons own this district. We’re at the beginning of what should be a deep playoff run for Manheim’s finest. I’ll take Central.

Cocalico (9-2) at Susquehanna Township (10-1): This is my upset special of the week. The Eagles are better than their No. 7 seed would indicate — remember, this team had Manheim Central dead to rights in Week 5 before succumbing to Manheim Magic and falling 17-14 on a last-second field goal. This game has shootout written all over it; Cocalico leads the L-L League in total yards (398.5 per game) and averages more than 30 points per game, while Township averages a whopping 429.4 yards per game and has put up 37 points per game. Yikes. Cocalico almost never passes the ball, but this is not your typical pound-the-line, control-the-clock kind of attack. The Eagles can put up points in a flash. Cocalico beat Township 49-30 in last year’s first round; I like them to repeat the feat this week — probably with a similar score. Give me the Eagles.

Conestoga Valley (7-4) at West York (10-1): Boy, the Buckskins pulled off a stunner last week, hammering Northern 35-0. It’s not the outcome that was surprising, it was the score. Great effort by the CV defense and a typical night by the Buckskins’ magnificent running back, Kevin Kelley. But this week, they get the defending district champ. West York has the same fast, dangerous offense that stymied Manheim Central in last year’s final. I hate to pick against CV; the Buckskins already have one stunner under their belts. But I don’t know that they can do it twice in a row. Give me West York.

AA

Middletown (8-3) at Lancaster Catholic (10-1): As I mentioned, this is a rematch of last year’s district final, which the Crusaders won in a laugher. My only memory of that game was getting in a car accident on the way to Hershey — stupid icy roads — so I missed my live-blogging duties that week. I know the Blue Raiders are out for vengeance, but I don’t see how they pull it off. They have a stingy defense, allowing just 217 yards per game, but they haven’t faced an offense with Catholic’s firepower yet. The Crusaders have two-time all-state quarterback Kyle Smith, a host of receivers led by Tyler Purvis, and a dangerous ground game paced by Jordan Stewart, who broke the school’s single-season rushing record last week despite missing two games this season. Oh, yeah — and their defense allows even less yardage than Middletown’s. Sure, they’ll miss linebacker/wideout Trevor St. Clair — who was lost to a broken ankle last week –  on defense. But even if Middletown moves the ball on them, the Crusaders can put up enough points to win a shootout, as they’ve done in the last two weeks (51-28 over Elco and 48-21 over York Suburban). Give me Catholic.

After 10 weeks of regular-season football, the second season is upon us. Nine Lancaster-Lebanon League teams remain alive as the postseason begins. Two of those teams — former Section 3 foes Cocalico and Elco — will go at it in the first round. Another familiar face — Governor Mifflin — will visit Manheim Township in a reunion of old Section 1 foes.

LancSports.com will be blogging live from a pair of playoff games this week. I’ll be bringing you the action from the Lancaster Catholic-York Suburban clash in Class AA, while Jeff Reinhart will be at Manheim Central’s first-round Class AAA showdown with Shippensburg.

Jeff has capsule previews of every game involving L-L League teams here. His picks will be up later today.

After going 108-28 in my regular-season picks, I’m approaching the postseason with a champion’s swagger (even if I finished in second place). Let’s see if I can keep that momentum going this week.

The picks:

CLASS AAAA

No. 15 York (6-4) at No. 2 Wilson (9-1): The Bulldogs have won eight in a row since their Week 2 loss to Manheim Central, racking up their 19th Section 1 title in the process. York started the season 6-0, but when starting QB Kelvin Parker was sidelined by a collarbone injury in Week 6, the Bearcats crashed and burned. This week, they finally hit the ground for good. York has been outscored 100-14, shutout twice and held to 72 yards per game during its four-game skid. Wilson should have no problem here. I’ll take the Bulldogs.

No. 12 Chambersburg (5-5) at No. 5 Penn Manor (8-2): The Comets are making their second straight trip to Districts, and are looking to improve on last year’s run, when they won a first-round game before bowing out to Cumberland Valley in Round 2. If Penn Manor doesn’t do a better job of protecting the football, this could be a short trip. The Comets turned it over three times against Cedar Crest last week, and had to stage a huge rally to pull out a 36-35 triumph over the 4-6 Falcons. They followed a similar script in their loss to Reading earlier in the season. That said, if Penn Manor can keep possession of the football, I don’t think Chambersburg has the defense to stop them — or enough weapons on offense to win. I’ll take the Comets.

No. 9 Governor Mifflin (6-4) at No. 8 Manheim Township (7-3): This could be one of the most competitive first-round games in the AAAA bracket. The Mustangs will try to pound the ball — they almost never pass — and they have a handful of dangerous running backs in that option attack of theirs. They’ve also held opponents to just 243 yards per game, including just 165 on the ground. That will be a challenge for Township, which is going to look to run behind RB Brian Sourber, one of the league’s top backs this season. The Blue Streaks have a little more variety on offense — they’re the team that brought the Wildcat to the L-L League a few seasons ago, after all — and I think they’ve faced a tougher schedule. So give me Township in a nail-biter.

CLASS AAA

No. 16 Shippensburg (6-4) at No. 1 Manheim Central (10-0): I can’t see any way this is competitive. The Barons have won their last four games by shutout and allowed just 76 points all season. They have six shutouts overall. And, oh yeah — they average 378 yards per game on offense. Shippensburg is riding a three-game winning streak, but those wins came against teams with a combined 6-23 record. The Greyhounds have beaten just one team with a winning record all year — and that was a Class A team (St. Pius X). Put it all together and it spells M-E-R-C-Y R-U-L-E. Give me the Barons.

No. 10 Elco (8-2) at No. 7 Cocalico (8-2): This could be the best AAA game on the docket. Two very good offenses going at it. Sounds like fun. Elco QB Arron Achey does just about everything for the Raiders. He’s passed for 1,600 yards, rushed for 1,100 and accounted for 37 touchdowns. And he starts at linebacker. Elco should probably change its nickname to the Fightin’ Acheys, at least for this season. So Cocalico won’t have to look too hard to find the guy to key on. The Eagles nearly knocked off Manheim Central in Week 4, and their Week 6 loss to Lebanon can be marked down as a fluke (starting QB Matt Carty went down with an injury early in that one). I’m leaning Cocalico’s way here, but it should be one heck of a game. Give me the Eagles.

No. 11 Conestoga Valley (6-4) at No. 6 Northern York (8-2): It’s a shame for CV. The Buckskins were cruising along, then got nailed by a series of crucial injuries. They’ve lost two in a row and three of four heading into the playoffs. Last week, they were beaten by 2-8 Ephrata. Not a good sign. Northern has made six straight playoff trips, though the Polar Bears have done little of note once they’ve gotten there. Still, I think they’ll have enough in the tank to overcome the wounded Buckskins. If CV was at full strength, that would be one thing. But I’ll take da Bears.

No. 13 Lampeter-Strasburg (7-3) at No. 4 Conrad Weiser (8-2): Before the brackets came out, I had the Pioneers as my upset pick in the first round. I knew they’d get a low seed, but their 7-3 record is deceiving. Their three losses came against playoff qualifiers — Cocalico, Penn Manor and Lancaster Catholic — by a total of 18 points. And they’re riding a five-game winning streak. But Conrad Weiser is just as hot. The Scouts have won six in a row, and have a tremendous talent in D.J. Robinson, who is their top rusher and receiver. He lines up everywhere. He’ll give the L-S defense a headache. Suddenly, I’m not so confident in my upset special pick, but I’ll stick to my guns. Give me the Pioneers.

CLASS AA

No. 8 York Suburban (7-3) at No. 1 Lancaster Catholic (9-1): The Crusaders are making their sixth straight trip to the district playoffs, and have made it through the first round each time. In their last three district openers, they’ve won by a combined score of 112-46. This one could be a little more competitive; York Suburban is pretty good. They’ve got a solid defense — which is key when you’re facing Catholic — and their run-heavy offense uses a variety of formations and misdirection. Still, this is Catholic. I find it very hard to bet against a Kyle Smith-led team this early in the postseason. And after battling through nagging injuries and a few early-season discipline issues, the Crusaders are finally at full strength as they open defense of their AA crown. Advantage, Catholic. Give me the Crusaders.

Jeff Reinhart has some early preview capsules on his blog. We’ll both get into these matchups a little deeper later in the week, with preview videos and predictions. But for now, here’s my first impression of each class:

AAAA

Tough-luck draws for Manheim Township and Penn Manor, who get the privilege of hosting first-round playoff games but are in the same half of the bracket as top seeded Bishop McDevitt. That’s especially bad news for Township, which will see the Crusaders in the second round — assuming they can dispatch Governor Mifflin on Friday and McDevitt pounds next-door neighbor Harrisburg on Saturday.

Penn Manor, the fifth seed, gets a pretty good draw in the first round. Chambersburg’s 5-5 record doesn’t exactly strike fear into your heart, and the Trojans’ offensive stats don’t jump off the page. They’re a run-heavy team with a mediocre defense. Of course, Penn Manor had to rally to knock off average-at-best Cedar Crest last week, so the Comets can’t get too cocky. But assuming they take care of Chambersburg, they’d probably get South Western (9-1) in the second round — which is where the sledding gets tougher.

Meanwhile, second-seeded Wilson gets free-falling York (6-4) in the first round, then a second-round matchup with either Central York (7-3) or Dallastown (6-4). Either way, the Bulldogs have two exceedingly winnable games before the semifinals. York has lost four straight games and is looking at a fast exit. Central York has won six of its last seven, but that loss came against 4-6 Red Lion just two weeks ago. Dallastown has won four straight, but most of those wins came against a bunch of jabronies.

AAA

Normally, we’d call the 3A field the Manheim Central Invitational. And, yes, the Barons are the top seed. And, yes, they get served up Shippensburg (6-4) in the first round — a potential Mercy Rule game if I ever saw one. But this field is absolutely loaded, and Central will be hard-pressed to reclaim the district gold this season. The Barons have the talent to get it done, but the road won’t be easy.

For example, look at the second round, where things get tricky for Central. The Barons could see eitherenigmatic Greencastle-Antrim (7-2) or who-knows-how-good-they-are Daniel Boone (8-2).

The hottest AAA team in the field not named Manheim Central could be L-L League Section 3 runner-up Lampeter-Strasburg (7-3), which is the low seed nobody wants to mess with. The Pioneers have won five in a row and seven of their last eight, and their three losses all came to district playoff teams (Cocalico, Penn Manor and Lancaster Catholic) by a total of 18 points.

The bad news for L-S is that they get Conrad Weiser (8-2), which has won six straight and eight of its last nine. This could potentially be the best first-round matchup in any field.

On the other side of the bracket, L-L League foes and former Section 3 rivals Cocalico and Elco will square off in a battle of 8-2 teams. I was impressed with the Raiders last week. Even though they got beat up by Kyle Smith and Lancaster Catholic, they were able to put up 28 points on the Crusaders, who are the top seed in Class AA. With a nod to Smith, Elco QB Aaron Achey gets my vote for the Section 3 MVP — the Raiders would simply be lost without him. How many quarterbacks do you know that can pass for 1,500 yards, rush for 1,000 yards and anchor the defense — as a LINEBACKER?

The winner of that Cocalico-Elco matchup has to negotiate a tough half of the bracket that includes a pair of 9-1 teams — Susquehanna Township and West York, which was stunned by Littlestown in Week 10. Meanwhile, injury-riddled Conestoga Valley will have its hands full with sixth-seeded Northern York (8-2). The Buckskins have lost three of their last four, including last week’s stunning 34-24 decision against a two-win Ephrata squad. RB Kevin Kelley, who needs 75 yards to hit the 2,000-yard milestone, will have to have the game of his life for CV to win.

AA

No lightweights in this bracket, either. Lancaster Catholic is the top seed with its 9-1 record, and the Crusaders should be favored to defend their crown. I’m not really sold on their first-round foe, York Suburban, which is 7-3 but has just one win over a team with better than a 6-4 record — a 30-21 victory over third-seeded Littlestown back in Week 4.

Assuming Catholic avoids the first-round stunner, they’d get either fourth-seeded Trinity (7-3) or No. 5 Middletown (7-3) in the second round. The Crusaders are familiar with Trinity; they trounced the Shamrocks 42-0 in Week 1. Middletown hasn’t really played anybody; their most impressive win was a 14-7 triumph over Trinity back in Week 7.

I think Catholic’s path to the title game is pretty clear. There the Crusaders willlikely get either Delone Catholic (9-1) or Littlestown (8-2).

A

To be blunt, I don’t care who wins the Class A title. That’s partially because nobody in the L-L League made the field, and partially because the five of the seven teams in the bracket have as much chance of winning the title as I do of winning a slam-dunk contest with LeBron James. Pencil in Upper Dauphin (9-1) and Steel-High (7-2) in the championship game and wake me when it’s over.

Pennlive.com, the online repository for the Harrisburg Patriot-News, has the current District 3 power points standings posted, as well as Rod Frisco’s breakdown of the various playoff scenarios. But since Rod chose to focus primarily on the Mid Penn teams in his analysis, I’ll go ahead and do the same for our local squads.

Here we go:

Class AAAA

Clinched: Bishop McDevitt (9-0), Wilson (8-1), Cumberland Valley (8-1), South Western (8-1), Central Dauphin (7-2), Penn Manor (7-2), Central York (6-3), Manheim Township (6-3), Muhlenberg (6-3).

In with a win: Chambersburg (5-4), York (6-3), Dallastown (5-4), Governor Mifflin (5-4), Cedar Cliff (5-4).

On the bubble: Spring Grove (5-4), Reading (5-4), Warwick (5-4), Red Lion (4-5).

Needs a miracle: Harrisburg (5-4), Cedar Crest (4-5), Hempfield (4-5).

Analysis: Bishop McDevitt has already clinched the top seed and is idle this week, so Wilson can’t improve its standing. The Dawgs are the No. 2 seed if they defeat Warwick on Friday. That result would almost certainly end Warwick’s chances at slipping into the field. Penn Manor closes the season with Cedar Crest. A win would give the Comets a home game in the first round of the playoffs and eliminate the Falcons from contention. Reading, which is tied with Spring Grove at No. 15 in the power points standings closes with winless McCaskey, while Spring Grove gets winless Dover. That’s significant because a win doesn’t do much for either team in the bonus points department and keeps the door open for Warwick and Red Land to sneak past them if both teams can win on Friday. It’s unlikely that Warwick can pull it off — the Warriors face Wilson — but it’s a mathematical possibility. Crest needs to shock Penn Manor on Friday and hope that Cedar Cliff, Harrisburg and Wilson are all upset as well. Hempfield needs to upset arch-rival Manheim Township and hope for a doomsday scenario that involves all six teams ranked ahead of it losing.  

CLASS AAA

Clinched:  Manheim Central (9-0), West York (9-0), Susquehanna Township (8-1), Conrad Weiser (7-2), Hershey (7-2), Northern (7-2), Greencastle-Antrim (7-2), Cocalico (7-2), Elco (8-1), Daniel Boone (7-2), Conestoga Valley (6-3).

In with a win: New Oxford (5-4)

On the bubble:Lampeter-Strasburg (6-3), Kennard-Dale (5-4), Mechanicsburg (5-4), Twin Valley (5-4), Solanco (5-4), Shippensburg (5-4).

Needs help:Susquenita (5-4), Northern Lebanon (5-4), Palmyra (4-5).

Analysis: Manheim Central will clinch the top seed with a win over Garden Spot (0-9), which seems like a foregone conclusion at this point.  Cocalico needs a win over Solanco and some bonus-point help to clinch a first-round home game. Ditto for Elco and CV. Elco will be an underdog against Lancaster Catholic on Friday, while CV is the heavy favorite against Ephrata (1-8). The math says L-S isn’t automatically a playoff team with a win over Annville-Cleona (3-6) on Friday, but reality says otherwise. The Pioneers should be fine as long as they take care of business. Solanco’s best path to the postseason is an upset win over Cocalico on Friday and the hope that either New Oxford, L-S, Kennard-Dale, Mechanicsburg or Twin Valley lose. A loss to Cocalico is pretty much fatal. Northern Lebanon is still technically alive, but the Vikings need a win and so many other things to go right for them that it’s too complex to get into here. Suffice it to say a Northern Lebanon appearance int he playoffs would be borderline miraculous.

CLASS AA

Clinched: Lancaster Catholic (8-1), Delone Catholic (8-1), Trinity (7-2) Littlestown (7-2)

In with a win: Middletown (6-3), Milton Hershey (6-3), York Suburban (6-3), Wyomissing (6-3)

On the bubble: Bermudian Springs (6-3), Boiling Springs (6-3), Schuylkill Valley (5-4).

Analysis: Lancaster Catholic, the only L-L League team in the field, can clinch the top seed and home-field advantage through the semifinals with a win over Elco on Friday. Then, the Crusaders can wait to see who is lucky enough to be served up to them as the No. 8 seed.

CLASS A

No L-L League teams to be seen here, but if you’re interested…

Clinched: Steel-High (6-2), Upper Dauphin (8-1), Millersburg (6-3), Reading Holy Name (6-3), Reading Central Catholic (5-4), York Catholic (5-4), Camp Hill (2-6).

Analysis: The top seed in this seven-team field gets a first-round bye and a home game in the semifinals. Steel-High and Upper Dauphin are battling for that spot; if both win on Friday, it will come down to bonus points.

Wilson hosts the Comets Friday at 7 p.m. (Cheap plug: I’ll be blogging live from the game, so stop by for a visit). If the Bulldogs win, they’ve pretty much got the section crown locked up. If Penn Manor wins, we’ve got a tie for first place — the the distinct possibility of a split championship, even if the Comets would own the bragging rights.

No matter who comes out on top this week, Penn Manor and Wilson are already in the Class AAAA playoff field. Manheim Central is locked into the Class AAA playoffs, while Lancaster Catholic has punched its playoff ticket in Class AA. Nine other league teams are on the verge of locking down berths, but need at least one more win to get in. So the stakes are high in several games on the docket this week.

Got all that? Let’s get into the picks:

SECTION ONE

Penn Manor (7-1, 4-1) at Wilson (7-1, 5-0):  I’ve seen the Comets three times this season, and I’m very impressed with the playmakers they’ve got on offense — quarterback P.J. Rehm, running back LaRonn Lee (a Brian Westbrook-type double threat), and speedy wideout Demetrius Dixon are the big-name guys, and they’ll all need to contribute for the Comets to pull off a win. I saw Wilson for the first time last week in their win over Manheim Township, and the Bulldogs have got some home run hitters on their side, too. Running back Kriss Brown, QB Zach Zweizig and bruising tight end Tyler Beck are their top Dawgs. This one could come down to protecting the ball. Penn Manor’s defense generates a lot of turnovers, and Wilson coughed up the ball several times in the second half last week, allowing Township to get back in the game after being dominated in the first half. That said, I just can’t pick against Wilson here. Though their lineup was nearly completely turned over from last year, the Bulldogs just have that big-game mystique going for them — and I can’t see them being that careless with the ball two weeks in a row. I’ll take the Dawgs, but I’m wavering on it.

Hempfield (4-4, 2-3) at Warwick (4-4, 2-3):  Put your calendars away — as far as these two teams are concerned, this is a playoff game. The loser is out of the running for a district berth. Heck, the winner will still need a win next week (and a loss by one or two other teams) to get in. This is a tough game to pick, because neither team has shown much consistency this season. I’m leaning toward Warwick. Call it a gut feeling. Call it an educated guess. Or I could just come clean and admit the Warriors won the coin flip.

Reading (4-4, 3-2) at Cedar Crest (3-5, 1-4):  Reading’s resurgence continued with last week’s victory over Hempfield. Now the Red Knights’ path is clear to the playoffs. All they’ve got to do is knock off Cedar Crest this week, then take care of winless McCaskey in the season finale. Crest has to be content with playing the spoiler at this point. I don’t think that’s enough motivation to overcome Reading’s potent offense, which is spearheaded by RB Jason Stewart. Give me the Knights.

Manheim Township (5-3, 3-2) at McCaskey (0-8, 0-5):  Township picked the wrong time to go into a slump; the Blue Streaks have lost two in a row to section front-runners Penn Manor and Wilson. But they’re still in a good position to make the playoffs, as long as the skid stops here. McCaskey is playing out the string in a long, frustrating season. That frustration seemed to boil over in Monday night’s loss to Cedar Crest, when coach David Given left the field before the end of the game and several parents and fans gathered outside the locker room had to be dispersed by a call to the police. Egads. Not a great environment in Tornadoland right now. I like the Streaks to regain their bearings here. Give me Township.

SECTION TWO

Lebanon (3-5, 3-2) at Manheim Central (8-0, 5-0):  The Barons are the only undefeated team left in the league. They’ve got a stranglehold on first place in the section race, and they can wrap up the top seed in the Class AAA playoff field with two more wins. Lebanon’s playoff hopes are all but gone, and even if they weren’t I can’t imagine a way for the Cedars to pull off an upset here. Central will continue its cruise to the playoffs. I’ll take the Barons.

Conestoga Valley (6-2, 4-1) at Cocalico (6-2, 3-2):  This is the marquee game on the Section Two docket this week, and Jeff Reinhart will be blogging live from Denver. Both teams need at one win in the next two weeks to clinch a berth in the Class AAA playoffs. CV is currently seventh in the district power points standings, which means the Buckskins would host a first-round game if the playoffs started today. Cocalico is 10th, so the Eagles have some work to do. Good news for Cocalico: there’s a chance that QB Matt Carty, who’s been sidelined for the last few weeks with an ankle injury, could return this week. If he’s back, I like the Eagles a lot. He’s a very good two-way player for them. CV’s Kevin Kelley will get his yards, but I think the Eagles find a way to pull this out. Give me Cocalico.

Ephrata (1-7, 1-4) at Elizabethtown (3-5, 2-3):  Neither team is a section title or district playoff contender, so this game’s strictly for pride. Ephrata’s struggled to move the ball all season, but the Mountaineers have been in just about every game. E-town’s been decimated by injuries, but even short-handed, I think the Bears get his one done. Give me E-town.

Garden Spot (0-8, 0-5) at Solanco (4-4, 2-3):  The Golden Mules are clinging to a Class AAA playoff berth by their fingernails; they’re tied with Mechanicsburg at No. 16 in the power points standings. Solanco needs two wins and some outside help to get in at this point. At least they get one of those wins on Friday. Garden Spot’s playing out the string of a nightmarish season, and I can’t see that elusive first win coming here. Give me Solanco.

SECTION THREE

Lampeter-Strasburg (5-3, 4-1) at Northern Lebanon (5-3, 3-2):  Class AAA playoff hopes are on the line in this clash, the marquee game in Section Three this week. Both teams need a win to keep their playoff hopes alive. The winner will also need to triumph next week to get in, but (as every football coach in the world has said at least once) they need to take it a game at a time. L-S has been playing for its playoff life all season, ever since the Pioneers started 0-2.  I like the Pioneers in this one; they’ve played a tougher schedule, and they’re the hotter team. Give me L-S.

Lancaster Catholic (7-1, 5-0) at Annville-Cleona (3-5, 3-2):  Catholic QB Kyle Smith will be going for the state record for career TD passes in this one; he’s currently tied with Manheim Township grad and current Pitt backup Pat Bostick with 94 scores. He should have that record pretty early — and will probably pad it out with a few more TD strikes to boot. No way the Crusaders take their eyes off the prize at this point; they’re gunning for the No. 1 seed in Class AA. Annville will not be much of an impediment. Give me Catholic.

Donegal (1-7, 1-4) at Elco (7-1,  4-1):  The Raiders are hoping to set up a showdown with Lancaster Catholic for the Section Three title next week and strengthen their position in the Class AAA playoff bracket, where they’re currently ranked ninth. Donegal will do little to prevent that; the Indians have struggled on defense all season, and the Raiders have one of the league’s most prolific attacks. Give me Elco, and get me a ticket for the Catholic showdown in Week 10.

Columbia (0-8, 0-5) at Pequea Valley (1-7, 0-5):  What’s the over-under for this game? About 100? Both teams can move the ball, and neither team can stop anybody. This one’s got shootout written all over it. The winner gets out of the Section Three cellar. I’m leaning toward Columbia, because it’s now or never for the Crimson Tide if they want to get their first win.

LAST WEEK: 12-0

SEASON: 89-23

Here are the power points standings heading into Week 9. Thanks to the good folks at Pennlive.com for providing them — they’re much better at math than I am.

Before I get started here, I’d like to point out a mistake I made in this week’s Two-Minute Drill for the Hempfield-Warwick game. I said in the video that Hempfield was ranked No. 16 in the power points standings, and Warwick was 17th. That’s wrong. Due to an early deadline on the vids this week, I had to cobble the standings together pretty fast, and in doing so I neglected to include Cumberland Valley. When you add the Eagles to their No. 4 spot, it bumps everyone down a notch — including Hempfield, which now finds itself on the outside looking in. Which makes Friday’s game even more important to the Black Knights.

OK, enough of that. Here are the standings:

AAAA

1. Bishop McDevitt (8-0), 131.25 rating

2. Wilson (7-1), 121.25 rating

3. Penn Manor (7-1), 111.25 rating

4. Cumberland Valley (7-1), 108.75 rating)

5. South Western (7-1), 103.75 rating

6. Central Dauphin (6-2), 101.25 rating

7. Central York (6-2), 96.25 rating

8. Muhlenberg (6-2), 86.75 rating

9 (tie). Manheim Township (5-3), 81.25 rating

9 (tie). York (6-2), 81.25 rating

11 (tie). Governor Mifflin (5-3), 77.50 rating

11 (tie). Cedar Cliff (5-3), 77.50 rating

13. Reading (4-4), 75.00 rating

14. Spring Grove (5-3), 73.75 

15. Chambersburg (4-4), 70.00 rating

16. Dallastown (4-4), 60.00 rating

On the outside: Hempfield (4-4, 53.75); Warwick (4-4, 52.50); Red Lion (3-5, 47.50); Harrisburg (3-5, 43.75); Elizabethtown (3-5, 37.50); Red Land (3-5, 36.25).

Analysis:The top six teams have all clinched playoff berths, and three others — Central York, Muhlenberg and York — will do the same with wins on Friday. So Wilson and Penn Manor are already in the playoffs no matter what happens in their showdown Friday night, but the winner will move a long way toward locking up a No. 2 seed and home field through the district finals. Townshipneeds to win its last two games to guarantee itself a playoff berth; the Streaks face McCaskey on Friday and close the season with arch-rival Hempfield. Readingfaces Cedar Crest on Friday and McCaskey in the season finale, so the Red Knights’ path to the playoffs seems clear. Hempfield and Warwickare currently on the outside looking in, but one of them still has a shot at getting in. They square off Friday, and the loser is out of the hunt. Hempfield then closes with Township, while Warwick faces Wilson. I wouldn’t want to face either of those teams with my playoff hopes on the line. Yikes.

AAA

1. Manheim Central (8-0), 147.50 rating

2. West York (8-0), 141.25 rating

3. Susquehanna Township (7-1), 118.75 rating

4. Northern (7-1), 116.25 rating

5. Conrad Weiser (6-2), 110.00 rating

6. Hershey (6-2), 108.75 rating

7. Conestoga Valley (6-2), 105.00 rating

8. Greencastle-Antrim (6-2), 101.25 rating

9. Elco (7-1), 98.75 rating

10. Cocalico (6-2), 96.25 rating

11. Daniel Boone (6-2), 88.75 rating

12. New Oxford (4-4), 75.00 rating

13. Kennard-Dale (4-4), 67.50 rating

14 (tie).  Lampeter-Strasburg (5-3), 66.25 rating

14 (tie). Northern Lebanon (5-3), 66.25 rating

16 (tie). Mechanicsburg (4-4), 65.00 rating

16 (tie). Solanco (4-4), 65.00 rating

On the outside: Twin Valley (4-4, 62.50); Palmyra (4-4, 62.50); Lebanon (3-5, 48.75).

Anaylsis: Congrats to Manheim Central and the next four teams in the standings — their playoff tickets have already been punched. Hershey, Conestoga Valley, Greencastle-Antrim, Elco and Cocalico can follow suit with one more win, either this week or next. That’s especially good news for Elco, which gets struggling Donegal (1-7) this week before closing the season with Class AA powerhouse and defending district champ Lancaster Catholic next week. The Raiders should probably close the deal this week, if they know what’s good for them. CV and Cocalico square off this week, with the winner clinching a berth. Next week, the Buckskins take on Ephrata (1-7) and Cocalico has a winnable game with Solanco (4-4), so Friday’s loser still has a good shot at a berth. Meanwhile, Lampeter-Strasburg continues its late-season surge toward a berth. The Pioneers know they have to win out from here, but they’ve been playing under that same scenario for the last month. That makes their clash with Northern Lebanon on Friday even more interesting, because the Vikes are playing for their playoff lives as well. Solancoand Mechanicsburg are tied for the final playoff spot; Solanco closes with Garden Spot and Cocalico, while Mechanicsburg has an easier road against James Buchanan (1-6) and Red Land (3-5).

AA

1. Lancaster Catholic (7-1), 121.25 rating

2. Delone Catholic (7-1), 117.50 rating

3. Middletown (6-2), 107.50 rating

4. Trinity (6-2), 106.25 rating

5. York Suburban (6-2), 100.00 rating

6. Littlestown (6-2), 92.50 rating

7. Wyomissing (5-3), 85.00 rating

8. Milton Hershey (5-3), 81.25 rating

On the outside:Bermudian Springs (5-3, 77.50); Juniata (5-3, 71.25); Boiling Springs (5-3, 67.50).

Analysis: Lancaster Catholic, the defending district champ, has locked up a playoff berth. The Crusaders take on Annville-Cleona and Elco in the final two weeks, and will be favored in both games. Delone Catholic is already in the big show as well. Middletown and Trinity can follow with one more win. Middletown has Milton Hershey and Palmyra (4-4), while Trinity closes with Palmyra and Milton Hershey. Tough road for the Shamrocks. York Suburban closes with Kennard-Dale (4-4) and Biglerville (2-6), Wyomissing ends the season with Fleetwood (0-8) and Pottsville (5-3) and Milton Hershey gets Middletown and Trinity. With so many of the bottom four teams facing off against one another, it’s tough to predict who Lancaster Catholic will see in the first round (but easy to predict the outcome).

A

Columbia, the L-L League’s lone Class A representative, is 0-8 on the season. Surprisingly, that will actually prevent the Crimson Tide from entering Class A’s ridiculous eight-team playoff field this year.

For the record, eight teams have already clinched berths, so it’s just a matter of who plays whom. The eight teams in the playoffs this year are Upper Dauphin (7-1), Steel-High (5-2), Millersburg (5-3), Reading Holy Name (5-3), York Catholic (5-3), Reading Central Catholic (4-4) and Camp Hill (2-5). I’m sure those matchups will be riveting.

With three games left in the season, 12 L-L League teams are currently sitting pretty in the power points race. Four others are on the outside looking in, but there’s still plenty of room to maneuver.

Let’s take a look at the Class AAAA, AAA and AA standings. No L-L League teams are alive in Class A. These are my calculations, and are not official (math was never my strongest subject in high school). But I’ve double- and triple-checked them enough to be confident in their accuracy.

CLASS AAAA (16-team field)

1. Bishop McDevitt (7-0), 128.6

2. South Western (7-0), 114.3

3. Wilson (6-1), 112.9

4. Penn Manor (6-1), 105.7

5. Cumberland Valley (6-1), 104.3

6. Central Dauphin (5-2), 94.3

t-7. York (6-1), 90.0

t-7. Manheim Township (5-2), 90.0

t-9. Muhlenberg (5-2), 81.4

t-9. Central York (5-2), 81.4

11. Chambersburg (4-3), 74.3

12. Governor Mifflin (4-3), 71.4

13. Cedar Cliff (4-3), 70.0

14. Reading (3-4), 62.9

15. Hempfield (4-3), 60.0

t-16. Warwick (4-3), 58.6

t-16. Spring Grove (4-3), 58.6

On the bubble: Dallastown (3-4), Red Lion (3-4), Harrisburg (3-4), Elizabethtown (3-4), Red Land (3-4)

L-L League Observations: Wilson and Penn Manor clash next week, which means one of them will be moving down. Township faces Wilson this week. The Streaks can probably afford one more loss, but their hope of hosting a first-round game evaporates if they fall to the Dawgs. The loser of Friday’s Hempfield-Reading clash is likely out of the playoff hunt. Ditto for Warwick, if the Warriors fall to Penn Manor on Friday. But at this point, it’s impossible to predict that for sure. Judging by the number of four-loss teams on the outside looking in, I’d say a 6-4 record might be enough to crack the playoff bracket — but it be a tense final week for the bubble teams. E-town faces Manheim Central this week. A loss to the Barons means it’s curtains for the Bears.

CLASS AAA (16-team field)

1. Manheim Central (7-0), 138.6

2. West York (7-0), 135.7

3. Hershey (6-1), 117.1

4. Greencastle-Antrim (6-1), 111.4

5. Susquehanna Township (6-1), 110.0

6. Northern (6-1), 104.3

7. Conrad Weiser (5-2), 101.4

t-8. Conestoga Valley (5-2), 100.0

t-8. Daniel Boone (6-1), 100.0

10. Elco (6-1), 94.3

11. Cocalico (5-2), 92.9

12. Kennard-Dale (4-3), 72.9

13. Twin Valley (4-3), 68.6

14. Palmyra (4-3), 65.7

15. Lampeter-Strasburg (4-3), 61.4

16. New Oxford (3-4), 58.6

On the outside: Northern Lebanon (4-3), Solanco (3-4), Susquenita (3-4), Lebanon (3-4), Mechanicsburg (3-4).

L-L League Observations: It’s not a mathematical certainty — yet — but let’s just say it: Manheim Central’s in. The Barons can wrap up the top seed by cutting through Elizabethtown, Lebanon and Garden Spot in the final three weeks. CV closes the season with Lebanon, Cocalico and Ephrata. The only big hurdle there is Cocalico, which would love to feast on the bonus points a win over CV would bring. The Eagles face winless Garden Spot this week and close the season against Solanco.  Elco still has a titanic showdown with Lancaster Catholic looming in Week 10; the Raiders would earn a share of the Section 3 title with a win. A loss wouldn’t be fatal for Elco, but it would knock the Raiders down far enough to earn a tough first-round matchup on the road. L-S needs to win out to have a shot at the playoffs, but the schedule is kind to the Pioneers from here on. They close with Pequea Valley, Northern Lebanon and Annville-Cleona, all very winnable games. The schedule is probably too tough for the three L-L League teams currently on the outside looking in. I can’t see how any of them win all three of their remaining games, so any playoff discussion is probably moot.

CLASS AA (8-team field)

1. Lancaster Catholic (6-1), 117.1

2. Delone Catholic (6-1), 107.1

3. Middletown (5-2), 102.9

4. Trinity (5-2), 98.6

t-5. York Suburban (5-2), 92.9

t-5. Wyomissing (5-2), 92.9

7. Bermudian Springs (5-2), 85.7

8. Littlestown (5-2), 84.3

L-L League Observations: Lancaster Catholic is the defending district champ, and it looks like the Crusaders are primed for another title run. The only hurdle left on their schedule is Elco in Week 10, and that should be a very good game. But Catholic gets to warm up for that one with winless Columbia on Friday and sub.-500 Annville-Cleona next week, so it will have a playoff berth and a home game in the first round all wrapped up by then. Several teams below Catholic in the standings lost last week, but there aren’t a lot of teams outside the top eight with legitimate shots at slipping into the bracket.

In Section 1, Penn Manor and Manheim Township will square off in a game that could go a long way toward determining the section championship. And in Section 2, the latest chapter in the much-ballyhooed rivalry between Manheim Central and Conestoga Valley will be written as they go at it with a share of first place in the section on the line.

Incidentally, LancSports.com will be representin’ at both games. Jeff Reinhart will blog live from Central-CV, while I’ll be on hand at the Penn Manor-Township clash. If you can’t get out to the games, please join us.

On to the picks…

SECTION 1

Penn Manor (5-1, 2-1) at Manheim Township (5-1, 3-0):There are some question marks here for Township, which makes this a tough game to get a handle on. Top rusher Brian Sourber and quarterback Jon Yuko are questionable for the game, because both were shaken up in the Streaks’ win over Cedar Crest last week. If they’re in the lineup — and at 100 percent — I like Township a lot. But since I have no way of knowing, I’m leaning toward Penn Manor, which appears to have shaken off its upset loss to Reading two weeks ago. I’ll take the Comets.

Cedar Crest (2-4, 0-3) at Hempfield (3-3, 2-1): The Black Knights sure don’t make it easy on our panel of prognosticators, because you never know which team will show up. Last week, they got pounded by section co-leader Wilson, 28-7. So I guess that means they’re due for a win here, because that’s how the season has gone for them. Cedar Crest is more than capable of springing an upset here, but I’ll side with the Knights.

McCaskey (0-6, 0-3) at Warwick (3-3, 1-2):Man, it’s been a tough go for the Red Tornado, now the proud owner of the longest losing streak in program history (17 games). Up until last week, McCaskey had a lead in every game, but it never got untracked in its 41-12 loss to Penn Manor. And Warwick’s balanced offense will give the Tornado fits, so that streak is probably going to be extended. I’ll take the Warriors.

Reading (3-3, 2-1) at Wilson (5-1, 3-0):Nice rivalry game for Berks County football fans. Reading would dearly love to knock off the Bulldogs in its final season as a member of the L-L League, and it’s not impossible. The Red Knights have posted back-to-back impressive wins over Penn Manor and Warwick. But it’s tough to go against Wilson here; the Dawgs’ winning tradition is too much to overlook. Give me the Dawgs.

SECTION 2

Manheim Central (6-0, 3-0) at Conestoga Valley (5-1, 3-0):The league’s last remaining undefeated team visits its biggest rival with a share of first place in the section on the line. It’s storylines like this that get me more geeked up than Ron Jaworski on a double-espresso bender. CV is the league’s most pleasant surprise this season, while Central’s success comes as a shock to no one. The Buckskins will turn the league’s top rusher, Kevin Kelley, loose against the Barons’ defense and hope for the best. He’s good enough to carry CV here, but I just can’t go against Central. I think the Barons find a way to get it done. Give me Central.

Garden Spot (0-6, 0-3) at Ephrata (0-6, 0-3): Well, something’s got to give in this battle of Oh-fers. Ephrata’s been getting a little better every week (well, not last week — they got dusted 62-14 by Central, but we’ll ignore that). The Mounts have been fairly competitive in four of their six losses. Garden Spot…not so much. I’ll take Ephrata.

Elizabethtown (3-3, 2-1) at Cocalico (4-2, 1-2): If quarterback Matt Carty was healthy, I’d be all over the Eagles in this one. But he’s doubtful for the game with what is believed to be an ankle injury, which shakes my confidence a bit. Cocalico’s offense floundered without Carty in last week’s 33-13 loss to Lebanon. E-town has a good offense, but a suspect defense, but Cocalico’s had a week to adjust to life without Carty. I’d expect a healthy dose of running back Austin Hartman on Friday. I’ll take the Eagles in a squeaker.

Lebanon (3-3, 2-1) at Solanco (2-4, 0-3):Lebanon is suddenly one of the hottest teams in Section 2, and finds itself in a three-way tie for first place in the section race — with dates against co-leaders CV and Manheim Central coming in the next two weeks. Solanco has been decimated by injuries, while Lebanon is rolling with the section’s big dogs. Give me the Cedars.

SECTION 3

Lancaster Catholic (5-1, 3-0) at Northern Lebanon (4-2, 2-1):It’s been two years, but I’ll bet any money that Bruce Harbach and the rest of the Crusader coaching staff still spent the week rehashing Catholic’s 17-13 upset loss to Northern Lebanon in 2007. The Crusaders exacted some revenge in last year’s 61-0 rout, but I’m sure they’d be happy to do the same thing again. Northern Lebanon’s 4-2 record is impressive, but the only team the Vikes have faced that’s nearly as good as Catholic was Elco — and the Raiders hammered them 41-7. I like Catholic here — I think the starters will get more than a half’s worth of work, but they should still win by a comfortable margin. Give me the Crusaders.

Elco (5-1, 2-1) at Pequea Valley (1-5, 0-3):Elco ran into the wrong team at the wrong time last week, visiting a ticked-off Lampeter-Strasburg team just itching to vent some frustration after nearly knocking off Lancaster Catholic the week before. And boy, did the Pioneers ever vent. They blasted Elco 40-14, slamming the breaks on Aaron Achey and the Raiders’ high-powered offense. Fortunately for Elco, the perfect salve comes along this week in Pequea Valley, a team that hasn’t stopped anyone on defense all year. The Raider offense should get healthy again this week — in a big way. I’ll take Elco.

Lampeter-Strasburg (3-3, 2-1) at Donegal (1-5, 1-2):The Pioneers may have salvaged their season with last week’s rout of Elco. If they win out from here, they should garner enough power points to sneak into the Class AAA bracket as a low seed. They’re on the outside looking in right now, but a 7-3 record might be enough — especially if Elco continues to win and give L-S a few extra bonus points. Donegal shouldn’t present much of an impediment to the Pioneers this week; they’ve got too many issues on defense. I’ll take L-S.

Annville-Cleona (2-4, 2-1) at Columbia (0-6, 0-3): The Little Dutchmen are part of a four-team logjam at second place in the Section 3 race, and figure to stay there for one more week at least. Columbia has one of the league’s worst defenses, so its only hope is to win in a shootout. That game plan hasn’t worked out for the Crimson Tide so far, and won’t this week. I’ll take the Dutchmen.

But before we get into the regular season’s home stretch, let’s pause to give each L-L League team its midterm grades and separate the contenders from the pretenders.

GRADE A:

Manheim Central (5-0 overall, 2-0 Section 2):The Barons are as loaded and talented as we thought they were in the preseason. They’ve outscored opponents 191-53 and have two shutouts on defense. The offense averages just under 400 yards per game. The defense can dominate. And better yet, they’ve already been battle-tested, surviving a miracle comeback bid from Wilson in their 29-27 victory in Week 2 and reviving a little Manheim Magic themselves in their 17-14 win over Cocalico in Week 4. Assuming they survive next week’s big rivalry game with CV — which could determine first place in the section race — the Barons should cruise through the second half.

Elco (5-0 overall, 2-0 Section 3):The Raiders have one of the league’s most prolific offenses, averaging 389 yards and 40.4 points per game. QB Arron Achey is as much a threat to run for a touchdown as he is to throw for one; he has 1,036 yards and 16 TDs through the air and 436 yards and four scores on the ground. I think Elco will still be undefeated heading into its Week 10 showdown with Lancaster Catholic, which will make that game a lot more interesting.

Wilson (4-1 overall, 2-0 Section 1):Remember back in the preseason, when all we heard about was the 20 starters the Bulldogs lost from last season and how it was going to be a rebuilding year? Yeah, not so much. Wilson hasn’t missed a beat. Its only loss was the 29-27 defeat at Manheim in Week 2, and the Bulldogs nearly pulled off a miracle comeback in that one. Led by QB Zach Zweizig and tight end Tyler Beck, the passing game is scary. And rushers Kriss Brown and Nick Greth are a deadly combo in the backfield. Sure, the defense isn’t as dominant as it was last year, but the Dawgs remain for real. They’re still the team to beat in Section 1.

Cocalico (4-1 overall, 1-1 Section 2):Like Wilson, the Eagles get an A grade in spite of the one loss on their record because of who that loss came against: Manheim Central. And, like the Bulldogs, Cocalico had Central on the ropes. If QB Matt Carty could have hung onto the ball on his way to the end zone for a clinching touchdown in the second half, we’d be talking about the undefeated Eagles. But Central’s Dan Trafford knocked it loose at the 3-yard line, and it rolled through the end zone for a touchback. Central then came back to tie the game at 14 and booted a game-winning field goal with 1.8 seconds to go. That’s all that separates Cocalico from perfection, but it doesn’t prevent them from getting an A.

Lancaster Catholic (4-1 overall, 2-0 Section 3):OK, we’ve got a trend here. Catholic’s only loss of the season came to Manheim Central — and it came with all-state QB Kyle Smith standing in the sidelines with a high-ankle sprain. You can argue that Smith’s presence might not have affected the outcome against the Barons, but there’s no arguing that the game would’ve been closer than the 42-12 final score without him. But he’s back in the lineup now, and Catholic should cruise into its Week 10 showdown with Elco unscathed. The Crusaders already cleared the second-biggest hurdle between them and another Section 3 crown with last week’s 14-13 squeaker over Lampeter-Strasburg.

GRADE B

Penn Manor (4-1 overall, 1-1 Section 1):The Comets were cruising toward a midterm A before they failed last week’s pop quiz at Reading, falling 32-27. Sure, they rallied from a 26-7 deficit in the third quarter to take a late lead, but they allowed the Red Knights to march down the field and score the game-winning TD with 25 seconds left. It was just the second win of the season for Reading, which got blasted 50-6 by Manheim Township the week before. The Comets still got big tests coming up in the second half of the season, with Manheim Township and Wilson looming ahead on the schedule. They should still be a factor in the section race and could snag a decent seed in the district playoffs, but they’ll have to work for it.

Manheim Township (4-1 overall, 2-0 section): The only blemish on the Blue Streaks’ record is a 31-21 upset loss to Red Lion (2-3) in Week 2, which knocks them down to B+ territory. Since then, the Streaks have reeled off three straight wins — and they appear to be improving every week. After Friday night’s tussle with Cedar Crest, Township has Penn Manor and Wilson in back-to-back games, so their Section 1 destiny will be decided soon.

Conestoga Valley (4-1 overall, 2-0 Section 2):The Buckskins suffered an upset loss to Cedar Crest in Week 2, which knocked them from the ranks of the unbeatens and out of the running for an A in my gradebook. But coach Tom Nichols has CV back in the Section 2 race in his first season since he left Coatesville to take over at his alma mater. That puts the spice back into the rivalry game with Manheim Central, which looms next week. Think star RB Kevin Kelley and the rest of the Bucks wouldn’t love to get some payback against the Barons?

GRADE C:

Hempfield (3-2 overall, 1-1 Section 1):The Black Knights were picked to win Section 1 in the Intell/New Era’s preseason football tab, but things haven’t worked out as planned. Sure, they have three wins — but those wins came against Garden Spot (0-5), Carlisle (2-3) and McCaskey (0-5). The two good teams Hempfield has faced — Conestoga Valley and Penn Manor — beat the Knights by a combined score of 62-16.

Warwick (3-2 overall, 1-1 Section 1):In the preseason, the Warriors were picked to be a middle-of-the-pack team in the section race, and that’s right about where they are. Their most memorable win so far was a 27-20 triumph over Cedar Crest, when they rallied from a 14-point deficit in the fourth quarter. Warwick is one of those programs that quietly puts together a 7- or 8-win season just about every year, but rarely factors into the section race. This year should be no exception.

Northern Lebanon (3-2 overall, 1-1 Section 3):  The Vikings’ two losses came against one very good team (Elco) and one pretty good team (New Oxford), and they haven’t really blown anyone away in their three victories (over Pine Grove, Hamburg and Annville-Cleona). They’re an average team that is just good enough to be dangerous. However, playing as a AAA team in Section 3 makes the road to the district playoffs much harder, especially when you’ve got more than two losses on your record. And the Vikes still have to play Lancaster Catholic.

Lampeter-Strasburg (2-3 overall, 1-1 Section 3):What? How can a sub-.500 team be considered average? Just take a closer look at the Pioneers’ three losses — against Penn Manor, Cocalico and Lancaster Catholic. They’re a combined 12-3, and L-S gave all three of them a battle. Unfortunately for the Pioneers, that probably won’t be enough to get them into the district playoffs as a Class AAA team, nor will it allow them to contend for the section title.

GRADE C-

Reading (2-3 overall, 1-1 Section 1):The Red Knights pulled off their biggest win in years — and arguably the L-L League’s most shocking upset of the season — with last week’s triumph against Penn Manor. Interestingly, their other win — a 13-0 triumph over Berks County neighbor Governor Mifflin — was also a pretty big upset. Reading can’t be considered a good team (yet), but the Knights are not too shabby. A low-side-of-average grad seems fair.

Cedar Crest (2-3 overall, 0-2 Section 1): The Falcons were blown out in two of their three losses, but they also upset Conestoga Valley 24-21 in Week 2 and nearly knocked off Warwick in Week 4. That gives them some bonus points in my book.

Elizabethtown (2-3 overall, 1-1 Section 2):The Bears can score points in bunches; they average 25 per game. But they’ve got major issues on defense, yielding 27 per game. Opposing teams have been able to gouge them on the ground — something they’ll need to shore up in the second half of the season, with Manheim Central and Cocalico looming on the schedule.

Solanco (2-3 overall, 0-2 Section 2):Injuries took a toll on the Golden Mules in the first half and contributed to the two-game slide they’re currently riding. Leading rusher B.J. Enck was banged up early in the season, but the real culprit has been their defense.

GRADE D:

McCaskey (0-5 overall, 0-2 Section 1):The Red Tornado’s losing streak has reached 16 games, dating back to the final week of the 2007 season. That’s the longest current skid in the Lancaster-Lebanon League. The good news for the Tornado is that things are improving; they’ve led in every game this year. They just need to find a way to avoid the big, game-changing mistakes and close one out. There are still one or two winnable games on the schedule — maybe more, if McCaskey stays true to what first-year coach David Given is preaching.

Ephrata (0-5 overall, 0-2 Section 2):While McCaskey’s 0-16 streak since the end of 2007 is the worst skid in the league, the Mountaineers are right behind. Their slide is at 15 games, with little relief in sight. They get Manheim Central on Friday. Enough said.

Garden Spot (0-5 overall, 0-2 Section 2):The Spartans are also looking for their first win of the season. Circle next Friday on your calendar — that’s when Garden Spot visits Ephrata. One of them will pick up a win.

Donegal (1-4 overall, 1-1 Section 3):The Indians’ only win of the season came against Pequea Valley. They also had a near-miss against Eastern York, falling 20-14 in overtime. Otherwise, it’s been a season full of blowouts for Donegal and new coach Jeff Polites. There are still a few winnable games on the schedule, so the Indians might be able to close out the year with a few wins and give themselves a shot of confidence heading into next season.

Annville-Cleona (1-4 overall, 1-1 Section 3):Like Donegal, the Little Dutchmen knocked off Pequea Valley for their only win. And, like Donegal, A-C’s other losses were all fairly ugly. The Dutchmen take on Donegal on Friday.

Pequea Valley (1-4 overall, 0-2 Section 3):The Braves’ losing streak reached 29 games before they knocked off Fleetwood in Week 3 to get off the schneid. Since then, it’s been back to normal for PV, which has a potent passing game with QB Ben Myers at the controls but struggles to stop anyone on defense.

Columbia (0-5 overall, 0-2 Section 3): It’s been a long, ugly season thus far for the Crimson Tide, which ranks dead last in the league in yards allowed (403 per game) and points allowed (47 per game). To make matters worse, the offense has turned over the ball a league-high 17 times. Those numbers all add up to one big total: 0 wins.

Locally, the L-L League’s section races are beginning to heat up as the contenders start distancing themselves from the pretenders. The same is true in the battle for bragging rights between me and my sportswriting compadres at Lancaster Newspapers. I went 10-2 last week and stand at 58-18 for the season, good enough for second place behind my faithful companion here at LancSports.com, Jeff Reinhart. His picks are here.

Enough of my personal horn-tooting. Let’s move on to the picks:

SECTION 1

McCaskey (0-5, 0-2) at Penn Manor (4-1, 1-1):I’ll be blogging live from this one at my alma mater, hoping to withstand the temptation to revisit my college days with a stop at the Sugar Bowl for a large cheesesteak stromboli with onions. If you can’t make it to the game, please join me. On to the game: Penn Manor got a wakeup call with last week’s 32-27 loss to Reading — you can’t overlook anyone in Section 1, Comets. McCaskey probably would have preferred it if Penn Manor had waited another week to learn that lesson; the Tornado is just itching to spring an upset on someone, but it’s doubtful that the Comets will make the same mistake twice. This is a good rivalry game that has put up some wild scores and wacky finishes over the years, and I’m looking for the same thing to happen this week. I’ll take Penn Manor in a shootout.

Wilson (4-1, 2-0) at Hempfield (3-2, 1-1):The Dawgs kept on rolling last week, roughing up Cedar Crest 31-0 for their third straight win. Hempfield survived an upset bid from McCaskey in its 21-14 win, which helped ease the sting of its blowout loss to Penn Manor in Week 4. The Black Knights are one of those teams that are hard to figure out. You never know which team will show up on Friday night — the good one or the bad one. Wilson, meanwhile, just shows up and plays well every week. Consistency scores points with me. I’ll take the Bulldogs. 

Warwick (3-2, 1-1) at Reading (2-3, 1-1):The Warriors got stomped by Manheim Township last week, while Reading sprung the biggest upset of the season on Penn Manor. What do you make of this Reading squad? Their two wins were both huge upsets (the knocked off Berks neighbor Governor Mifflin 13-0 in Week 2), but their three losses were ugly. I’m sure Warwick coach Bob Locker is spending the week emphasizing Reading’s two wins. And his Warriors could use a victory here, especially if they want to stay in the hunt in the section race (and, for that matter, the district playoffs). It’s a coin-flip game for me, but my gut says take the Warriors. So I’ll listen.

Manheim Township (4-1, 2-0) at Cedar Crest (2-3, 0-2): Township is on a roll with three straight victories, each one more impressive than the last. The Blue Streaks can do a lot of things well on offense, and their defense isn’t too shabby, either. Crest is another one of those teams that is struggling to stay consistent. Once again, I’ll go with the more consistent team. Give me the Streaks.

SECTION 2

Manheim Central (5-0, 2-0) at Ephrata (0-5, 0-2): I’ll take Central. Let’s move on.

Solanco (2-3, 0-2) at Conestoga Valley (4-1, 2-0): CV’s Kevin Kelley continues to run wild and is on pace to eclipse the 2,000-yard mark this season. He’d be the first L-L League back since former Lebanon Catholic star Tommy Long did the deed in 1996. To put that in perspective, back then gas cost $1.25 per gallon, Bill Clinton was president and Lebanon Catholic still had a football program. Boy, where does the time go? At any rate, a healthy dose of Kelley should be enough to lift the Buckskins here. I’ll take CV.

Elizabethtown (2-3, 1-1) at Garden Spot (0-5, 0-2): The good news for E-town is that the Bears can put up a ton of points. They average 25 per game. The bad news is their defense is allowing 27 per game — which could explain the 2-3 record. However, Garden Spot’s offense doesn’t appear to have the firepower to make E-town pay, and the Bears’ Mitch Weidman should have a field day against the Spartan ‘D.’ I’ll take da Bears.

Cocalico (4-1, 1-1) at Lebanon (2-3, 2-0):The Cedars have won two in a row, but those victories have come against the bottom two teams in Section 2. Cocalico, with outstanding QB Matt Carty and bruising rusher Austin Hartman leading the way, should present a much stiffer test. I think that loss to Central will be the only one the Eagles suffer between now and the playoffs. Give me Cocalico.

SECTION 3

Pequea Valley (1-4, 0-2) at Lancaster Catholic (4-1, 2-0):I’ve picked PV to win in each of the last three weeks, but this seems like a pretty good time to jump off the Braves’ bandwagon. Kyle Smith and the Crusader offense should light up PV’s defense like a Hollywood Casino slot machine. I’ll take Catholic.

Elco (5-0, 2-0) at Lampeter-Strasburg (2-3, 1-1):This is the biggest test of the season so far for Elco, which makes the long trip to Lampeter to take on the Pioneers — possibly the best 2-3 team in the district. L-S nearly knocked off Catholic last week, falling 14-13, and its other two losses came against Penn Manor and Cocalico, who are a combined 8-2. L-S should slow down QB Aaron Achey and Elco’s high-octane offense, but not enough. I’ll take the Raiders. CHEAP PLUG ALERT — LancSports.com’s Jeff Reinhart will be blogging live from this one. Be sure to stop by and say hello.

Donegal (1-4, 1-1) at Annville-Cleona (1-4, 1-1): Talk about your tough games to pick. Both teams got their only wins against Pequea Valley. Both have struggled mightily on both sides of the ball. Ugh. Let’s go with my tried-and-true tiebreaker method: a coin flip. <PAUSE> It was heads. I’ll take Donegal.

Northern Lebanon (3-2, 1-1) at Columbia (0-5, 0-2):The Vikings have a decent offense, while Columbia’s defense ranks dead last in the league in several catagories — most notably points allowed (235) and yards allowed (403 per game). The Crimson Tide has also turned the ball over 17 times, so it doesn’t get much better on the other side of the ball. I’ll take Northern Lebanon.