I was up until the wee hours of Saturday morning figuring out the math for all the brackets, so I decided to take the rest of the weekend off before I started wrapping my head around all the matchups. But now that Monday’s here, I guess it’s a good time to take a look and see how things break down at first glance.
Jeff Reinhart has some early preview capsules on his blog. We’ll both get into these matchups a little deeper later in the week, with preview videos and predictions. But for now, here’s my first impression of each class:
AAAA
Tough-luck draws for Manheim Township and Penn Manor, who get the privilege of hosting first-round playoff games but are in the same half of the bracket as top seeded Bishop McDevitt. That’s especially bad news for Township, which will see the Crusaders in the second round — assuming they can dispatch Governor Mifflin on Friday and McDevitt pounds next-door neighbor Harrisburg on Saturday.
Penn Manor, the fifth seed, gets a pretty good draw in the first round. Chambersburg’s 5-5 record doesn’t exactly strike fear into your heart, and the Trojans’ offensive stats don’t jump off the page. They’re a run-heavy team with a mediocre defense. Of course, Penn Manor had to rally to knock off average-at-best Cedar Crest last week, so the Comets can’t get too cocky. But assuming they take care of Chambersburg, they’d probably get South Western (9-1) in the second round — which is where the sledding gets tougher.
Meanwhile, second-seeded Wilson gets free-falling York (6-4) in the first round, then a second-round matchup with either Central York (7-3) or Dallastown (6-4). Either way, the Bulldogs have two exceedingly winnable games before the semifinals. York has lost four straight games and is looking at a fast exit. Central York has won six of its last seven, but that loss came against 4-6 Red Lion just two weeks ago. Dallastown has won four straight, but most of those wins came against a bunch of jabronies.
AAA
Normally, we’d call the 3A field the Manheim Central Invitational. And, yes, the Barons are the top seed. And, yes, they get served up Shippensburg (6-4) in the first round — a potential Mercy Rule game if I ever saw one. But this field is absolutely loaded, and Central will be hard-pressed to reclaim the district gold this season. The Barons have the talent to get it done, but the road won’t be easy.
For example, look at the second round, where things get tricky for Central. The Barons could see eitherenigmatic Greencastle-Antrim (7-2) or who-knows-how-good-they-are Daniel Boone (8-2).
The hottest AAA team in the field not named Manheim Central could be L-L League Section 3 runner-up Lampeter-Strasburg (7-3), which is the low seed nobody wants to mess with. The Pioneers have won five in a row and seven of their last eight, and their three losses all came to district playoff teams (Cocalico, Penn Manor and Lancaster Catholic) by a total of 18 points.
The bad news for L-S is that they get Conrad Weiser (8-2), which has won six straight and eight of its last nine. This could potentially be the best first-round matchup in any field.
On the other side of the bracket, L-L League foes and former Section 3 rivals Cocalico and Elco will square off in a battle of 8-2 teams. I was impressed with the Raiders last week. Even though they got beat up by Kyle Smith and Lancaster Catholic, they were able to put up 28 points on the Crusaders, who are the top seed in Class AA. With a nod to Smith, Elco QB Aaron Achey gets my vote for the Section 3 MVP — the Raiders would simply be lost without him. How many quarterbacks do you know that can pass for 1,500 yards, rush for 1,000 yards and anchor the defense — as a LINEBACKER?
The winner of that Cocalico-Elco matchup has to negotiate a tough half of the bracket that includes a pair of 9-1 teams — Susquehanna Township and West York, which was stunned by Littlestown in Week 10. Meanwhile, injury-riddled Conestoga Valley will have its hands full with sixth-seeded Northern York (8-2). The Buckskins have lost three of their last four, including last week’s stunning 34-24 decision against a two-win Ephrata squad. RB Kevin Kelley, who needs 75 yards to hit the 2,000-yard milestone, will have to have the game of his life for CV to win.
AA
No lightweights in this bracket, either. Lancaster Catholic is the top seed with its 9-1 record, and the Crusaders should be favored to defend their crown. I’m not really sold on their first-round foe, York Suburban, which is 7-3 but has just one win over a team with better than a 6-4 record — a 30-21 victory over third-seeded Littlestown back in Week 4.
Assuming Catholic avoids the first-round stunner, they’d get either fourth-seeded Trinity (7-3) or No. 5 Middletown (7-3) in the second round. The Crusaders are familiar with Trinity; they trounced the Shamrocks 42-0 in Week 1. Middletown hasn’t really played anybody; their most impressive win was a 14-7 triumph over Trinity back in Week 7.
I think Catholic’s path to the title game is pretty clear. There the Crusaders willlikely get either Delone Catholic (9-1) or Littlestown (8-2).
A
To be blunt, I don’t care who wins the Class A title. That’s partially because nobody in the L-L League made the field, and partially because the five of the seven teams in the bracket have as much chance of winning the title as I do of winning a slam-dunk contest with LeBron James. Pencil in Upper Dauphin (9-1) and Steel-High (7-2) in the championship game and wake me when it’s over.
