As we head into the 10th and final week of the regular season, 32 of District 3’s 48 playoff slots in its four classes have been filled, leaving 16 spots up for grabs. Which means there will be plenty of drama in the final week of the season — especially for a handful of Lancaster-Lebanon League teams.
Pennlive.com, the online repository for the Harrisburg Patriot-News, has the current District 3 power points standings posted, as well as Rod Frisco’s breakdown of the various playoff scenarios. But since Rod chose to focus primarily on the Mid Penn teams in his analysis, I’ll go ahead and do the same for our local squads.
Here we go:
Class AAAA
Clinched: Bishop McDevitt (9-0), Wilson (8-1), Cumberland Valley (8-1), South Western (8-1), Central Dauphin (7-2), Penn Manor (7-2), Central York (6-3), Manheim Township (6-3), Muhlenberg (6-3).
In with a win: Chambersburg (5-4), York (6-3), Dallastown (5-4), Governor Mifflin (5-4), Cedar Cliff (5-4).
On the bubble: Spring Grove (5-4), Reading (5-4), Warwick (5-4), Red Lion (4-5).
Needs a miracle: Harrisburg (5-4), Cedar Crest (4-5), Hempfield (4-5).
Analysis: Bishop McDevitt has already clinched the top seed and is idle this week, so Wilson can’t improve its standing. The Dawgs are the No. 2 seed if they defeat Warwick on Friday. That result would almost certainly end Warwick’s chances at slipping into the field. Penn Manor closes the season with Cedar Crest. A win would give the Comets a home game in the first round of the playoffs and eliminate the Falcons from contention. Reading, which is tied with Spring Grove at No. 15 in the power points standings closes with winless McCaskey, while Spring Grove gets winless Dover. That’s significant because a win doesn’t do much for either team in the bonus points department and keeps the door open for Warwick and Red Land to sneak past them if both teams can win on Friday. It’s unlikely that Warwick can pull it off — the Warriors face Wilson — but it’s a mathematical possibility. Crest needs to shock Penn Manor on Friday and hope that Cedar Cliff, Harrisburg and Wilson are all upset as well. Hempfield needs to upset arch-rival Manheim Township and hope for a doomsday scenario that involves all six teams ranked ahead of it losing.
CLASS AAA
Clinched: Manheim Central (9-0), West York (9-0), Susquehanna Township (8-1), Conrad Weiser (7-2), Hershey (7-2), Northern (7-2), Greencastle-Antrim (7-2), Cocalico (7-2), Elco (8-1), Daniel Boone (7-2), Conestoga Valley (6-3).
In with a win: New Oxford (5-4)
On the bubble:Lampeter-Strasburg (6-3), Kennard-Dale (5-4), Mechanicsburg (5-4), Twin Valley (5-4), Solanco (5-4), Shippensburg (5-4).
Needs help:Susquenita (5-4), Northern Lebanon (5-4), Palmyra (4-5).
Analysis: Manheim Central will clinch the top seed with a win over Garden Spot (0-9), which seems like a foregone conclusion at this point. Cocalico needs a win over Solanco and some bonus-point help to clinch a first-round home game. Ditto for Elco and CV. Elco will be an underdog against Lancaster Catholic on Friday, while CV is the heavy favorite against Ephrata (1-8). The math says L-S isn’t automatically a playoff team with a win over Annville-Cleona (3-6) on Friday, but reality says otherwise. The Pioneers should be fine as long as they take care of business. Solanco’s best path to the postseason is an upset win over Cocalico on Friday and the hope that either New Oxford, L-S, Kennard-Dale, Mechanicsburg or Twin Valley lose. A loss to Cocalico is pretty much fatal. Northern Lebanon is still technically alive, but the Vikings need a win and so many other things to go right for them that it’s too complex to get into here. Suffice it to say a Northern Lebanon appearance int he playoffs would be borderline miraculous.
CLASS AA
Clinched: Lancaster Catholic (8-1), Delone Catholic (8-1), Trinity (7-2) Littlestown (7-2)
In with a win: Middletown (6-3), Milton Hershey (6-3), York Suburban (6-3), Wyomissing (6-3)
On the bubble: Bermudian Springs (6-3), Boiling Springs (6-3), Schuylkill Valley (5-4).
Analysis: Lancaster Catholic, the only L-L League team in the field, can clinch the top seed and home-field advantage through the semifinals with a win over Elco on Friday. Then, the Crusaders can wait to see who is lucky enough to be served up to them as the No. 8 seed.
CLASS A
No L-L League teams to be seen here, but if you’re interested…
Clinched: Steel-High (6-2), Upper Dauphin (8-1), Millersburg (6-3), Reading Holy Name (6-3), Reading Central Catholic (5-4), York Catholic (5-4), Camp Hill (2-6).
Analysis: The top seed in this seven-team field gets a first-round bye and a home game in the semifinals. Steel-High and Upper Dauphin are battling for that spot; if both win on Friday, it will come down to bonus points.
