We’re heading into the eighth week of the regular season, which means it’s time to start shifting our focus away from the Lancaster-Lebanon League section races and toward the District 3 power points standings, which are used to determine the playoff field in all four classes.
With three games left in the season, 12 L-L League teams are currently sitting pretty in the power points race. Four others are on the outside looking in, but there’s still plenty of room to maneuver.
Let’s take a look at the Class AAAA, AAA and AA standings. No L-L League teams are alive in Class A. These are my calculations, and are not official (math was never my strongest subject in high school). But I’ve double- and triple-checked them enough to be confident in their accuracy.
CLASS AAAA (16-team field)
1. Bishop McDevitt (7-0), 128.6
2. South Western (7-0), 114.3
3. Wilson (6-1), 112.9
4. Penn Manor (6-1), 105.7
5. Cumberland Valley (6-1), 104.3
6. Central Dauphin (5-2), 94.3
t-7. York (6-1), 90.0
t-7. Manheim Township (5-2), 90.0
t-9. Muhlenberg (5-2), 81.4
t-9. Central York (5-2), 81.4
11. Chambersburg (4-3), 74.3
12. Governor Mifflin (4-3), 71.4
13. Cedar Cliff (4-3), 70.0
14. Reading (3-4), 62.9
15. Hempfield (4-3), 60.0
t-16. Warwick (4-3), 58.6
t-16. Spring Grove (4-3), 58.6
On the bubble: Dallastown (3-4), Red Lion (3-4), Harrisburg (3-4), Elizabethtown (3-4), Red Land (3-4)
L-L League Observations: Wilson and Penn Manor clash next week, which means one of them will be moving down. Township faces Wilson this week. The Streaks can probably afford one more loss, but their hope of hosting a first-round game evaporates if they fall to the Dawgs. The loser of Friday’s Hempfield-Reading clash is likely out of the playoff hunt. Ditto for Warwick, if the Warriors fall to Penn Manor on Friday. But at this point, it’s impossible to predict that for sure. Judging by the number of four-loss teams on the outside looking in, I’d say a 6-4 record might be enough to crack the playoff bracket — but it be a tense final week for the bubble teams. E-town faces Manheim Central this week. A loss to the Barons means it’s curtains for the Bears.
CLASS AAA (16-team field)
1. Manheim Central (7-0), 138.6
2. West York (7-0), 135.7
3. Hershey (6-1), 117.1
4. Greencastle-Antrim (6-1), 111.4
5. Susquehanna Township (6-1), 110.0
6. Northern (6-1), 104.3
7. Conrad Weiser (5-2), 101.4
t-8. Conestoga Valley (5-2), 100.0
t-8. Daniel Boone (6-1), 100.0
10. Elco (6-1), 94.3
11. Cocalico (5-2), 92.9
12. Kennard-Dale (4-3), 72.9
13. Twin Valley (4-3), 68.6
14. Palmyra (4-3), 65.7
15. Lampeter-Strasburg (4-3), 61.4
16. New Oxford (3-4), 58.6
On the outside: Northern Lebanon (4-3), Solanco (3-4), Susquenita (3-4), Lebanon (3-4), Mechanicsburg (3-4).
L-L League Observations: It’s not a mathematical certainty — yet — but let’s just say it: Manheim Central’s in. The Barons can wrap up the top seed by cutting through Elizabethtown, Lebanon and Garden Spot in the final three weeks. CV closes the season with Lebanon, Cocalico and Ephrata. The only big hurdle there is Cocalico, which would love to feast on the bonus points a win over CV would bring. The Eagles face winless Garden Spot this week and close the season against Solanco. Elco still has a titanic showdown with Lancaster Catholic looming in Week 10; the Raiders would earn a share of the Section 3 title with a win. A loss wouldn’t be fatal for Elco, but it would knock the Raiders down far enough to earn a tough first-round matchup on the road. L-S needs to win out to have a shot at the playoffs, but the schedule is kind to the Pioneers from here on. They close with Pequea Valley, Northern Lebanon and Annville-Cleona, all very winnable games. The schedule is probably too tough for the three L-L League teams currently on the outside looking in. I can’t see how any of them win all three of their remaining games, so any playoff discussion is probably moot.
CLASS AA (8-team field)
1. Lancaster Catholic (6-1), 117.1
2. Delone Catholic (6-1), 107.1
3. Middletown (5-2), 102.9
4. Trinity (5-2), 98.6
t-5. York Suburban (5-2), 92.9
t-5. Wyomissing (5-2), 92.9
7. Bermudian Springs (5-2), 85.7
8. Littlestown (5-2), 84.3
L-L League Observations: Lancaster Catholic is the defending district champ, and it looks like the Crusaders are primed for another title run. The only hurdle left on their schedule is Elco in Week 10, and that should be a very good game. But Catholic gets to warm up for that one with winless Columbia on Friday and sub.-500 Annville-Cleona next week, so it will have a playoff berth and a home game in the first round all wrapped up by then. Several teams below Catholic in the standings lost last week, but there aren’t a lot of teams outside the top eight with legitimate shots at slipping into the bracket.
