Via Sullivan, who rarely has time for anything but Iran these days - a piece in Slate which indicates that states’ revenue woes are one big reason why we’re hearing more about the possibility of legalizing marijuana:

Jeffrey Miron, a Harvard economist and proponent of broad drug decriminalization, suggests that we look to alcohol and cigarette taxes as a model for a potential cannabis tax. Even with so-called “sin taxes” of up to 90 percent of the total price, illegal markets, once widespread, account for a tiny fraction of total sales. Miron warns that initial marijuana taxes at such a level “would just be a total mess” due to the expansiveness of the black market and ease of growing marijuana at home. Instead he recommends starting with a low tax—perhaps at 25 percent of the total price—and then gradually increasing it.

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Whatever they do, governments that tax marijuana will have to balance a trio of related goals—reducing budget deficits, eradicating the black market, and improving public health. Inevitably, one goal will get the short end of the spliff. Harvard’s Miron predicts that governments will give priority to reducing deficits in the current round of pot-reform debates. It’s not the best argument for legalization, says Miron, who has estimated that U.S. governments could save almost $13 billion annually if they no longer arrested, prosecuted, or imprisoned marijuana buyers or sellers. But in an era of falling tax revenue, it may be the most effective one.

In related news, Rep. Barney Frank sponsors legislation that would eliminate federal penalties for possession of less than 100 grams.

Decriminalization, maybe full-fledged legalization is coming - and in large part, for fiscal reasons. But who in the world could have imagined it would unfold this quickly?