Via Nate Silver, a fascinating piece from Richard Posner:

My theme is the intellectual decline of conservatism, and it is notable that the policies of the new conservatism are powered largely by emotion and religion and have for the most part weak intellectual groundings. That the policies are weak in conception, have largely failed in execution, and are political flops is therefore unsurprising. The major blows to conservatism, culminating in the election and programs of Obama, have been fourfold: the failure of military force to achieve U.S. foreign policy objectives; the inanity of trying to substitute will for intellect, as in the denial of global warming, the use of religious criteria in the selection of public officials, the neglect of management and expertise in government; a continued preoccupation with abortion; and fiscal incontinence in the form of massive budget deficits, the Medicare drug plan, excessive foreign borrowing, and asset-price inflation.

By the fall of 2008, the face of the Republican Party had become Sarah Palin and Joe the Plumber. Conservative intellectuals had no party.

Posner hits on something we’ve been saying less articulately around these parts for years: movement conservatism, the Limbaugh listeners, have not only taken over the Republican Party, they’ve redefined what it means to be “conservative.” Conservatism has grown, as Posner notes, more strident and populist. Well, it had to do so in order to maintain momentum; and it worked. For a while.

Posner ends his essay by saying all this is a testament to its success; the movement achieved what it set out to achieve. I’ll buy that; but that also suggests, though he doesn’t say it directly, that the movement has run its course; that its era is over. That’s the genesis of all those “The end of the GOP?” stories we’ve been seeing lately.

There are signs and portents of liberal excess in the policies and plans of the new administration. There will thus be plenty of targets for informed conservative critique. At this writing, however, the conservative movement is at its lowest ebb since 1964.

It’s going to be very interesting to see what rises from the ashes, when it rises from the ashes. The longer Limbaugh and Cheney are allowed to continue defining the Republican Party - the longer it will remain in the ash heap.