Specter’s only hope…
March 6th, 2009 10:23 am · 6 comments
…may be switching parties. From TPMDC:
Former Rep. Pat Toomey, who challenged Specter from the right in the Republican primary back in 2004, then went on to head the Club For Growth, is reportedly running again in 2010.
In this case, bad news for Specter could also be good news for Democrats — if the ultra-conservative Toomey wins the primary, the Democratic nominee will have a very good shot at winning the seat, as opposed to Specter starting out as the favorite in any general election.
It’s extremely good news for the Democratic Party in Pennsylvania.
There is absolutely no way that a far-right candidate like Pat Toomey can win a general election in Pennsylvania right now. Period.
But, he most certainly can win the Republican Primary. Specter needs to understand, however far he might try to tack between now and then, it’s not going to be enough. It’s not going to change the minds of the rump of the party which detest him and always have - but probably detest him now more than ever, due to his vote on the stimulus package.
Specter needs to grasp the fact that he’s not merely disliked, he’s hated - by a large chunk of his own party. At best - he wins the primary by the skin of his teeth and goes weakened into a general election. Much of what happens then will depend on how strong the Democratic candidate is.
Arlen Specter might be the strongest Democratic candidate of all.
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Tags: Arlen Specter · Pennsylvania
There are currently 6 comments on this blog postView Topic | Comment on this blogArtVandolay
3/6/09
11:08 AM | I agree that a far right candidate won't win in PA. If Spector switches sides, the Dem National Committee will have to spend more $ in PA, which could leave them week in other states that would have closer races. So it's good news for the Republicans who will hammer away at Spector, ( and they will have the amo) just so he has to spend extra $ than a normal dem candidate. Of course if all goes well with Obama's programs, it won't matter.
But if he continues down the road he's on, were all in trouble, not just the Dems. The strategy of making it harder to acumulate weath to even the score
When you discuss Obama's backing by the public, keep in mind that stuff changes over the long term. People are still hoping. But, I think there are deep rooted problems that go way beyond trying to mock Limbaugh, Hannity and Beck, etc. which looks paranoid and Nixonian to many.
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StrobeSML
3/6/09
3:31 PM | I don't think that Specter should change to Democrat. If he has to change, he should go to being an independent. He is a moderate and going independent would allow him to continue to caucus with the Republicans, which would be his preference. |
Artie See
3/6/09
4:34 PM | Arlen Specter has earned, and deserves, his retirement. He is elderly, and has had health issues which would have killed lesser individuals. I can appreciate his drive to accomplish things while he still can, but it is questionable whether he can survive another six years of abuse in Washington.
Mr. Specter should step back, and simply try to enjoy whatever time he has left. |
salty
3/7/09
5:12 AM | Hari-kari. |
StrobeSML
3/7/09
4:07 PM | Arlen Specter has earned, and deserves, his retirement. He is elderly, and has had health issues which would have killed lesser individuals. I can appreciate his drive to accomplish things while he still can, but it is questionable whether he can survive another six years of abuse in Washington.
Mr. Specter should step back, and simply try to enjoy whatever time he has left.
Arlen Specter isn't looking for retirement. You aren't talking about retiring him but kicking him out.
I suspect Specter has some good years left in him.
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gsmart
3/8/09
12:36 AM | Mr. Specter should step back, and simply try to enjoy whatever time he has left.
Actually, that's an excellent call.
Pennsylvania is a battleground state. Democrats have a registration edge, but the question is how much of that edge actually goes out and votes. Republicans are, we might say, going to be rather motivated next time around...
The right wants a shot at Specter's seat, the other side wants its shot. Specter is as a known commodity, as close to a moderate on the right as you're going to find yet someone who can be counted upon to stand in the way of Obama/Pelosi's most partisan feints. He's hard to beat in a general election. But a raving right-winger - and Toomey will be portrayed that way - is going to be very simple to beat.
Ask Toomey is he thinks Rush is Right.
If Specter runs as a Republican it's going to be a bloodbath. Specter is going to have to pretend to be a wingnut and will, peeling off some of Toomey's votes. But enough? Specter could lose. Depending on what the economy's doing at that particular point in time - in other words, if he's seen as enabling failed economic policies - he's vulnerable. On the other hand, if the economy's improving, as I think it will - then Specter has crossover appeal and Toomey has zero.
The question is whether the right thinks electability or purity is the key question in the election. Pennsylvania will be watched very closely because of that issue. We're right in the middle of a complete redefinition of the Republican Party, folks. |
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