Arlen running uphill:
A new statewide poll shows 53 percent of Pennsylvanians — and 66 percent of Republicans — want someone to replace Sen. Arlen Specter.
Limbaugh, in other words, speaks for about two-thirds of Pennsylvania Republicans.
Among registered Republicans, 66 percent favored a new senator and 26 percent backed Specter. The margin of error on that question was plus or minus 5.9 percentage points.
Almost half of registered Democrats (49 percent) favored Specter over someone new (42 percent.) The margin of error was 5 percentage points, Lee said. …
<snip>
However, Lee cautioned, the 2010 primary and general election are an eternity away in politics and Specter, 79, has time to try to “rehabilitate his image” within the Republican Party. Specter, who has served in the Senate 29 years, most likely would have to register some key votes on issues to regain support among Republicans, Lee said.
Gotta get more wingnutty. But why? It won’t work.
I suspect for the True Believers, his vote for the stimulus package was the final straw (but then, the straws are always breaking that particular camel’s back). It says here Specter would have a better chance of re-election were he to change his registration from Republican to Democrat. Democrats have a big registration edge in the state, and most Democrats would probably vote for him - indeed, of the 42 percent who want “someone new,” I’m betting the major - maybe the only real reason for that, is simply because Specter is Republican.
Moderate Republicans have a choice. They can cave to the absolutist Limbaugh rump of the party, or they can come over to the other side, where the tent is significantly bigger. The game is changing - and if Specter thinks he can win by continuing to play it the same old way, then he really will lose.
Update: Matt Y. thinking along the same lines:
I doubt Specter will avail himself of this option, but the obvious solution would be to stick to his guns on EFCA and follow up his support for the stimulus by switching parties and, like Jim Jeffords, reposition ideologically somewhat. In other words, stop being a vulnerable moderate Republican and become a plain-vanilla Democrat with a safe seat. It would be pretty easy for Specter, as a Democrat, to beat GOP nominee Toomey in a general election. But beating Toomey in a primary without becoming too right-wing to carry the state will be tough.
