Daniel Larison, who’s rapidly becoming one of my favorite bloggers despite the fact (or perhaps because of it) that he’s an old-school type of conservative, has a remarkably thought-provoking post on how neoconservatism may look dead -but may be bound for a comeback.

Money quote:

Even so, you can guarantee that the alarmists who warned of new Hitlers every other week in the booming ’90s and were constantly warning against “existential threats” during the last decade will be, if it is humanly possible, even more inclined to declare emergencies and demand action–and I fear the public will be inclined to listen to them, because a people is never as susceptible to a message of national superiority and self-righteousness as it is when times are bad, and neoconservatism indulges both sentiments. The moment when reflection and renovation are needed is often the moment when men turn instead to ready-made ideas that flatter and reassure them. A time of crisis is often the least likely time for self-criticism and reform. We may have seen the end of preventive war for now, and aggressive democracy promotion may recede into the background for a while, but the basic conviction that American power should advance and defend American ideals–as I think neoconservatives would euphemistically describe their own vision of the American role in the world–is going to continue to motivate a large part of the right. This is why, perversely, even though the experience of the Bush Era should make conservatives more inclined to heed non-interventionist and realist counsel, I fear that most conservatives are going to oppose the Obama administration by adopting even more hawkish positions than he does and criticize him for his lack of resolve, and the neoconservatives will be there urging them on.

And if they win the argument, particularly in this economic environment, our national decline may be irreversible.