Oil’s strange week

August 1st, 2008 11:27 am · 25 comments

Up by nearly $3 per barrel so far today. Could reverse by the end of the day, of course, but the up-and-down nature of the market this week generates its own set of questions. Does a decline from the high of $147 per barrel to roughly $20 less constitute the bursting of a bubble? Or was it just a temporary pullback as people took profits; a momentary respite on the long march up?

It’s just interesting to see people still sinking money into oil despite the fall of the past two weeks. There remains a segment of the market still bullish on oil. I’m just wondering just how legitimate, how sound, the reasons for that.

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  25 comments  Tags: Economy · Oil

There are currently 25 comments on this blog post
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dragonrider
8/1/08
11:36 AM
QUOTE(Lancaster Online @ Aug 1 2008, 11:30 AM) [snapback]418422[/snapback]


Post your thoughts and comments about this blog post.
Hey gas is down $0.25 at WAWA
justplainjoe
8/1/08
11:55 AM
exxon mobil profits way up over same quarter last year.

surpise!!!!!!

johnq
8/1/08
12:17 PM
At least it's down from $147, and gas is down a little.

Most of the talk now is that oil will hover around $125 for the short term, although there are more than a few who predict it's continued decline to around $100-110. Hardly anyone calling for $150 to $200 anymore.

Watch to see what happens with China after the Olympics. They have been buying huge quantities of diesel, which is likely to slow dramatically. Also, there is a lot of belief that they will eliminate subsidies on gas after the Olympics, reducing demand.

The dollar is strengthening slightly as well, helping with the price.

And last, but certainly not least, it is believed that Nancy Pelosi will introduce a bill the repeal the Law of Supply and Demand, dramatically reducing the price.

Big Dog
8/1/08
12:38 PM
QUOTE(justplainjoe @ Aug 1 2008, 11:55 AM) [snapback]418441[/snapback]
exxon mobil profits way up over same quarter last year.

surpise!!!!!!



Does this upset you?

graphicsully
8/1/08
12:47 PM
QUOTE(johnq @ Aug 1 2008, 12:17 PM) [snapback]418450[/snapback]

At least it's down from $147, and gas is down a little.

Most of the talk now is that oil will hover around $125 for the short term, although there are more than a few who predict it's continued decline to around $100-110. Hardly anyone calling for $150 to $200 anymore.

Watch to see what happens with China after the Olympics. They have been buying huge quantities of diesel, which is likely to slow dramatically. Also, there is a lot of belief that they will eliminate subsidies on gas after the Olympics, reducing demand.

The dollar is strengthening slightly as well, helping with the price.

And last, but certainly not least, it is believed that Nancy Pelosi will introduce a bill the repeal the Law of Supply and Demand, dramatically reducing the price.



maybe it had more to do with the house going on vacation and not voting on an energy plan....Bush should call them back.
cyberscribbler
8/1/08
12:53 PM
QUOTE(johnq @ Aug 1 2008, 12:17 PM) [snapback]418450[/snapback]
repeal the Law of Supply and Demand, dramatically reducing the price.

Bush would invoke a signing statement making law invalid. What would be the use.

Techinically supply/demand is an economic model or theory, not a law.
Are you at all familiar with the Price elasticity of demand , giffen goods & Oligopolies

or do you just throw around the tired ole' supply/demand law meme to make people think there's nothing that can be done about it?

johnq
8/1/08
1:09 PM
QUOTE(cyberscribbler @ Aug 1 2008, 12:53 PM) [snapback]418477[/snapback]

Bush would invoke a signing statement making law invalid. What would be the use.

Techinically supply/demand is an economic model or theory, not a law.
Are you at all familiar with the Price elasticity of demand , giffen goods & Oligopolies

or do you just throw around the tired ole' supply/demand law meme to make people think there's nothing that can be done about it?

You have no sense of humor, do you?
cyberscribbler
8/1/08
1:15 PM
QUOTE(johnq @ Aug 1 2008, 01:09 PM) [snapback]418487[/snapback]
You have no sense of humor, do you?
Like you post about China buying up diesel could be substituted for Leno's monologue tonite?

I'll stop by and tell you a few. wink.gif

johnq
8/1/08
2:02 PM
QUOTE(cyberscribbler @ Aug 1 2008, 01:15 PM) [snapback]418494[/snapback]
Like you post about China buying up diesel could be substituted for Leno's monologue tonite?

I'll stop by and tell you a few. wink.gif

Don't forget your tinfoil hat. You're always much funnier with it on.



Obviously, the oil situation is quite complex. But the constant blame placed on "speculators," Big Oil, and other shadowy figures is not the problem. Just look at the price of coal over the last two years and realize that it is not traded on the futures market. Sure, it sucks that oil is so high, but it doesn't mean that some evil entities are to blame, although I know you feel better thinking it does. Besides, I'd bet we'll see $100 before we see $150, and $80 long before we see $200. And when that happens, will you want Congress to crack down on short sellers of oil the way they want to crack down on short sellers of 19 particular stocks? wink.gif

cyberscribbler
8/1/08
3:32 PM
QUOTE(johnq @ Aug 1 2008, 02:02 PM) [snapback]418519[/snapback]
Don't forget your tinfoil hat. You're always much funnier with it on.
It's a lamp shade. But thanks, i'm not very good a prop comedy. Ask carrot-top wink.gif
QUOTE
Obviously, the oil situation is quite complex. But the constant blame placed on "speculators," Big Oil, and other shadowy figures is not the problem. Just look at the price of coal over the last two years and realize that it is not traded on the futures market. Sure, it sucks that oil is so high, but it doesn't mean that some evil entities are to blame, although I know you feel better thinking it does. Besides, I'd bet we'll see $100 before we see $150, and $80 long before we see $200. And when that happens, will you want Congress to crack down on short sellers of oil the way they want to crack down on short sellers of 19 particular stocks? wink.gif
Those 19 other stocks aren't giffen good commodities. Some experts attribute 60% of the cost purely on speculation. Couple that with investment companies relocating their futures trading units to the UK. Why , because England doesn't require nearly as much cash in reserve for futures speculators.

Coal isn't a substitute to oil. Natural gas could be more so if auto makers would produce more gas powered vehicles. But as it stands now, Oil & Coal are not compatible substitutes like say coke & pepsi are.

johnq
8/1/08
3:40 PM
QUOTE(cyberscribbler @ Aug 1 2008, 03:32 PM) [snapback]418548[/snapback]
Coal isn't a substitute to oil. Natural gas could be more so if auto makers would produce more gas powered vehicles. But as it stands now, Oil & Coal are not compatible substitutes like say coke & pepsi are.

You missed the point entirely.

Have a good weekend. I'm off to work. I ride my bike.

dragonrider
8/1/08
6:13 PM
QUOTE(Big Dog @ Aug 1 2008, 12:38 PM) [snapback]418465[/snapback]


Does this upset you?

Duh,Yeah, when they are being given tax breaks and we are running a 1/2 trillion dollar deficit.

QUOTE(cyberscribbler @ Aug 1 2008, 12:53 PM) [snapback]418477[/snapback]

Bush would invoke a signing statement making law invalid. What would be the use.

Techinically supply/demand is an economic model or theory, not a law.
Are you at all familiar with the Price elasticity of demand , giffen goods & Oligopolies

or do you just throw around the tired ole' supply/demand law meme to make people think there's nothing that can be done about it?

Maybe its more like a theory like the theory of evolution and we can find an alternative to it in the bible.
cyberscribbler
8/1/08
11:22 PM
QUOTE(dragonrider @ Aug 1 2008, 06:13 PM) [snapback]418573[/snapback]
Maybe its more like a theory like the theory of evolution and we can find an alternative to it in the bible.
Yea, let's just pray and pedal real hard, that'll work.
RE: the 1/2 trillion dollar deficit, it's what keeps us beholden to the excellent Iraqi adventure.
Seriously the natural gas powered & hybrid vehicles are within our grasp. You have to wonder why they're not flooding the market with them now. Meanwhile the automakers are on a downward spiral.

Will be pedalling away, for pleasure in OC this coming week. Have a good one DR , & you to JQ.

PedroHead
8/2/08
12:10 AM
Eh, I think your thoughtful post is more wishing than anything else. China gets a lot of "press", but accounts for very little of the world's oil use. The rising dollar is a product of oil falling; not the inverse. The speculators do have a decent bit to do with the spike.



OPEC has mentioned numerous times that oil should be around $72bb. So why are we higher? Two reasons. One is a fear premium. We always have one since the wacko's in the Middle East are so unpredictable (Or predictable in that they will always be fighting), but it should not have suddenly gone to such an extreme. The second reason for the spike is the short sellers (i.e. hedge funds) who- as they always try to do- drive prices hard in a direction. In this case, the path of least resistance was up and up hard for oil.



Right now the hope for falling oil is that demand falls here and follows overseas. Although, an even bigger factor is Iran (i.e. one of those wacko Middle East countries) and what the end result is with their nuke ambitions. Me thinks you will see military action in some form in six months and oil will skyrocket, but then crash hard as the world realizes that this is better long term and that Iran cannot close the Strait.



Personally, I hope we stay at high prices for awhile. Not because I like to pay them, but because if the price stays high we (you, me, the goverment, big business, small business) have an urgency to develop other sources of energy other than the wacko Middle East countries.



QUOTE(johnq @ Aug 1 2008, 02:02 PM) [snapback]418519[/snapback]
Don't forget your tinfoil hat. You're always much funnier with it on.



Obviously, the oil situation is quite complex. But the constant blame placed on "speculators," Big Oil, and other shadowy figures is not the problem. Just look at the price of coal over the last two years and realize that it is not traded on the futures market. Sure, it sucks that oil is so high, but it doesn't mean that some evil entities are to blame, although I know you feel better thinking it does. Besides, I'd bet we'll see $100 before we see $150, and $80 long before we see $200. And when that happens, will you want Congress to crack down on short sellers of oil the way they want to crack down on short sellers of 19 particular stocks? wink.gif



AngelFace
8/2/08
12:31 AM
QUOTE(cyberscribbler @ Aug 1 2008, 03:32 PM) [snapback]418548[/snapback]

It's a lamp shade. But thanks, i'm not very good a prop comedy. Ask carrot-top wink.gif
Those 19 other stocks aren't giffen good commodities. Some experts attribute 60% of the cost purely on speculation. Couple that with investment companies relocating their futures trading units to the UK. Why , because England doesn't require nearly as much cash in reserve for futures speculators.

Coal isn't a substitute to oil. Natural gas could be more so if auto makers would produce more gas powered vehicles. But as it stands now, Oil & Coal are not compatible substitutes like say coke & pepsi are.


I am no economist -- I am mostly a listener and learner -- but I think the coal point, and the same point could be made for solar, is not that coal or solar SUBSTITUTE for oil, but that in using coal for electric generation and home heating, etc. etc. it would FREE UP more oil to be refined for gasoline for vehicles. Solar, wind, all the alternatives, would not substitute for autos either, but again, Obama especially is pushing the alternatives for power generation hoping it will leave us flush with oil for transportation.
johnq
8/2/08
12:47 AM
QUOTE(AngelFace @ Aug 2 2008, 12:31 AM) [snapback]418627[/snapback]


I am no economist -- I am mostly a listener and learner -- but I think the coal point, and the same point could be made for solar, is not that coal or solar SUBSTITUTE for oil, but that in using coal for electric generation and home heating, etc. etc. it would FREE UP more oil to be refined for gasoline for vehicles. Solar, wind, all the alternatives, would not substitute for autos either, but again, Obama especially is pushing the alternatives for power generation hoping it will leave us flush with oil for transportation.
Wrong. The point is that coal is going up as much as oil, while NOT being traded on the futures market. Suggests that there are some other factors than "speculators" involved. Do some research yourself. Commodities markets long term. Metals, grains up big now, too. Why? Not because some of some bogeyman. If you want to learn something interesting, look into it yourself. Don't rely on me or anyone else on here for your answers. Find out for yourself.

QUOTE(PedroHead @ Aug 2 2008, 12:10 AM) [snapback]418623[/snapback]


Personally, I hope we stay at high prices for awhile. Not because I like to pay them, but because if the price stays high we (you, me, the goverment, big business, small business) have an urgency to develop other sources of energy other than the wacko Middle East countries.
I've said the same. Even though high oil affects one my own business interests.

I love the offshore drilling debate. Humor at it's very best. Can we elect dumber people into public office?
PedroHead
8/2/08
12:48 AM
Yeah, go obama. We will need this "freed" up money since we will be paying sooo much more in taxes. Yeah, go obama. Socialism rules.



QUOTE(AngelFace @ Aug 2 2008, 12:31 AM) [snapback]418627[/snapback]


I am no economist -- I am mostly a listener and learner -- but I think the coal point, and the same point could be made for solar, is not that coal or solar SUBSTITUTE for oil, but that in using coal for electric generation and home heating, etc. etc. it would FREE UP more oil to be refined for gasoline for vehicles. Solar, wind, all the alternatives, would not substitute for autos either, but again, Obama especially is pushing the alternatives for power generation hoping it will leave us flush with oil for transportation.


justplainjoe
8/2/08
5:56 AM
QUOTE(PedroHead @ Aug 2 2008, 12:10 AM) [snapback]418623[/snapback]



OPEC has mentioned numerous times that oil should be around $72bb. So why are we higher? Two reasons. One is a fear premium. We always have one since the wacko's in the Middle East are so unpredictable (Or predictable in that they will always be fighting), but it should not have suddenly gone to such an extreme.



yes but is iran really driving the price or is the tension there being exploited for the purpose of instilling fear and driving up the price?

who is driving this pig?

cyberscribbler
8/2/08
6:56 AM
QUOTE(johnq @ Aug 2 2008, 12:47 AM) [snapback]418632[/snapback]
Wrong. The point is that coal is going up as much as oil, while NOT being traded on the futures market. Suggests that there are some other factors than "speculators" involved. Do some research yourself. Commodities markets long term.

China is bringing 2 new coal fired power plants online each week.
QUOTE
Metals, grains up big now, too. Why? Not because some of some bogeyman. If you want to learn something interesting, look into it yourself. Don't rely on me or anyone else on here for your answers. Find out for yourself.
In the past, people on this board have pointed to a good source of what they think are reliable news sources. Fortune, Barrons, McClatchey.
What's the beef? Who know, one day someone may write a profound summation of the topic which will be pointed to whenever the subject comes up.
Or people will spend the forseeable future going back and forth on hot-button issues that never will affect them personally. Who knows unsure.gif
QUOTE(PedroHead)
Personally, I hope we stay at high prices for awhile. Not because I like to pay them, but because if the price stays high we (you, me, the goverment, big business, small business) have an urgency to develop other sources of energy other than the wacko Middle East countries.
I tend to agree with this view. Necessity being the mother of invention.
Where i differ is it's not just wacko Middle Eastern countries. It's anywhere oil is in abundance. Russia, Kenya, Mexico, Saudi Arabia. As Tom Friedman put it "In petro-states, the price of oil and the level of freedom are inversely proportional."

Rural Conservative
8/2/08
11:56 AM
QUOTE(graphicsully @ Aug 1 2008, 12:47 PM) [snapback]418471[/snapback]



maybe it had more to do with the house going on vacation and not voting on an energy plan....Bush should call them back.


Funny thing is, if I'd been given a job to do by my boss and I didn't do it, I'd get fired, especially if I repeated the stunt over and over again.

The boss in this case is the American people, not the president. The majority of Americans are in favor of drilling as a temporary solution. Even california now has a slim majority asking for drilling, but does Pelosi listen? What does it say about a politician when they won't even submit to the will of their own constituents.
justplainjoe
8/2/08
12:48 PM
QUOTE(Rural Conservative @ Aug 2 2008, 11:56 AM) [snapback]418706[/snapback]


Funny thing is, if I'd been given a job to do by my boss and I didn't do it, I'd get fired, especially if I repeated the stunt over and over again.

The boss in this case is the American people, not the president. The majority of Americans are in favor of drilling as a temporary solution. Even california now has a slim majority asking for drilling, but does Pelosi listen? What does it say about a politician when they won't even submit to the will of their own constituents.


i see and do you hold bush to this same high standard? if you did you should be jumping up and down screaming by now instead of complaining about the democrats not succumbing to the dog and pony show over drilling.

but then that is for the consumption of the masses who don't pay attention.

meanwhile the repubs blocked a bill that would have ended oil speculation by those who have driven up the price of your gas .

of course it is more macho to pick on pelosi than to stand up to the tuff guy republicans who are screwing you while you cheerfully bend over.
maybe you are scared they will call you a whiner.LOL
podunk
8/2/08
2:01 PM
Politics on both sides....

"Democrats had privately expected Friday’s cloture vote to fail, setting up a natural political path to blame Republicans for blocking a potential partial solution to the gas-cost crisis."
justplainjoe
8/2/08
2:18 PM
QUOTE(podunk @ Aug 2 2008, 02:01 PM) [snapback]418731[/snapback]
Politics on both sides....

"Democrats had privately expected Friday's cloture vote to fail, setting up a natural political path to blame Republicans for blocking a potential partial solution to the gas-cost crisis."


so it's the democrats fault? LOL

i expected them to vote against closing the enron loophole as well, that's a no brainer.

your post implies that that somehow exhonerates the repubs for sticking it to american whiners for their rich pals.

podunk
8/2/08
2:53 PM
I am starting to understand why the world is messed up..... reading comprehension. Can people really be that clueless? All your biblical interpretations are starting to make sense. You read what you want to hear, not what is printed.
PedroHead
8/2/08
5:19 PM
Well with the news out today that Iran (Wacko Middle East country #1) is not going to budge "one iota" on nuclear ambitions, I would guess oil will be up pretty big on Monday.



http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/25989771/



QUOTE(cyberscribbler @ Aug 2 2008, 06:56 AM) [snapback]418658[/snapback]

China is bringing 2 new coal fired power plants online each week.
In the past, people on this board have pointed to a good source of what they think are reliable news sources. Fortune, Barrons, McClatchey.
What's the beef? Who know, one day someone may write a profound summation of the topic which will be pointed to whenever the subject comes up.
Or people will spend the forseeable future going back and forth on hot-button issues that never will affect them personally. Who knows unsure.gif
I tend to agree with this view. Necessity being the mother of invention.
Where i differ is it's not just wacko Middle Eastern countries. It's anywhere oil is in abundance. Russia, Kenya, Mexico, Saudi Arabia. As Tom Friedman put it "In petro-states, the price of oil and the level of freedom are inversely proportional."



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