A fascinating little moment on Fox News Sunday today. Bill Kristol airs the idea that if Obama looks as if he will win the election, Bush or Israel may be more likely to attack Iran before next January. Bush could say: Obama made me do it!
So if Bush worries “Obama won’t follow through on that policy,” Bush could choose to enforce the policy himself.
Unstated is the sure Republican belief that bombing Iran before the election helps the Republican nominee, McCain. Sullivan thinks that’s likely; I think it’s possibly the most unlikely thing imaginable, if only because bombing Iran immediately sends the cost of gasoline further skyward; bombs fall in early October, we could well see gas at $5 per gallon, perhaps $6 per gallon, by the time the election rolls around.
(Actually, Time Magazine has predicted gas at $12 a barrel in the event of an attack on Iran, though it would probably take more than a month before the price hit those heights. Maybe not, though.)
So while the GOP would expect people to rally round the flag, it depends on what the Iranian response would be. If Iran responds immediately with military/terrorist action, then there would be a rallying effect; if Iran simply restricts oil imports, the upshot is an immediate spike in gas prices - which candidate Obama can turn around to the public and say: Do you see the results of Republican recklessness?
