Our Obama trend
April 23rd, 2008 10:58 am · 13 comments
So with all the votes counted, Obama garnered more votes than Hillary here in Lancaster County, 27,126 to 22,710 - 54 percent to 46 percent.
That just amazes me.
Lancaster County Democratic registrations soared this year, with more than 12,000 new voters registered since last November. The local party was hoping for 10,000 by this November; they’re way ahead of the game, and the Republican Party’s advantage here in Lancaster County is now 56-30 - less than two to one.
Still a huge discrepancy, obviously, but less of a discrepancy than it has ever been.
Prior to this surge in registrations, would Lancaster County Dems have gone for Hillary instead? That would have been my assumption. But then Lancaster County is different than Pennsylvania on the whole, isn’t it? This isn’t exactly Scranton. Unions don’t have the same strength they did and do in, say, Pittsburgh. If there is such a thing as a “new Democrat,” and I think there is (described two years ago by Ezra Klein as “the liberal response to Clinton’s triangulation and Bush’s ascension. Gleefully pugilistic, fiercely opposed to the Iraq War, deeply distrustful of a ‘corporate media’ they believe screwed Gore specifically and Democrats generally, and proudly unapologetic about the progressive agenda”) - then it seems they predominate here among Democrats, and that trend is only going to become more pronounced.
So what you get is a Lancaster County that suddenly possesses a new importance to the Democratic Party, not only in terms of numbers but whose numbers; that if the party in Pennsylvania on the whole isn’t ready for change, the party in Lancaster County is, and may be representative of those who are - the next generation, a different kind of Democrat not necessarily beholden to the old New Deal coalition.
Lancaster County as a leader on the left. Who’da thunk it?
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Tags: Lancaster politics · Obama · Democratic Party · Lancaster
There are currently 13 comments on this blog postView Topic | Comment on this blogdavepidgeon
4/23/08
11:39 AM | Some thoughts to chew over:
Lancaster Democrats, particularly in the city, have been more progressive compared to their fellow Dems at least since a sizable portion backed the more liberal Chuck Pennachio rather than the moderate Bob Casey Jr. in 2006. Mostly anti-war, which favored Obama.
Is it a reaction, too, to the hardline right constituency in Lancaster, a way to draw distinctions, a group survival type mentality? Go to the left rather than the middle as a way to build the party and mark a stronger contrast with local Republicans?
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gsmart
4/23/08
12:18 PM | QUOTE(davepidgeon @ Apr 23 2008, 11:39 AM) [snapback]381364[/snapback] Some thoughts to chew over:
Lancaster Democrats, particularly in the city, have been more progressive compared to their fellow Dems at least since a sizable portion backed the more liberal Chuck Pennachio rather than the moderate Bob Casey Jr. in 2006. Mostly anti-war, which favored Obama.
Is it a reaction, too, to the hardline right constituency in Lancaster, a way to draw distinctions, a group survival type mentality? Go to the left rather than the middle as a way to build the party and mark a stronger contrast with local Republicans?
Again, I see it less in terms of liberal vs. conservative than I do in the idea of the "new" Democratic Party vs. the old.
"Old" being the traditional New Deal coalition, blue collars plus women plus minorities in whatever combination, though obviously a lot of those folks vote for Obama too. Depending on how you define your "liberalism," I don't necessarily know Obama is more liberal than Hillary. Are we defining "liberalism" on the basis of the war, or the economy? Isn't Obama's health-care plan perceived as (and attacked in Hillary campaign commercials as) less liberal than Clinton's?
My sense is that newer Democrats here tend to be younger, better educated, possibly more affluent. Possibly more suburban or at least as suburban as urban (I think the rural areas are likely to stay Republican forever). Rick Gray, really, might be emblematic of this - an educated guy, former lawyer turned mayor, who rides a motorcycle. That's not to hold him up as any sort of ideological model, or anything like that, but to say: How do you classify someone like that? How do you classify the suburban dadsgrown uneasy about their health insurance or the soccer moms gripped by the creeping fear that this unending war in the Mideast may one day claim their child?
Lancaster County's staunch conservatism plays a role, I think, but then Lancaster County has actually been more conservative in the past, or at least more Republican. I think we're becoming a more urbanized area; that plays a role too.
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charlie_crystle
4/23/08
8:49 PM | QUOTE(gsmart @ Apr 23 2008, 12:18 PM) [snapback]381384[/snapback]
Again, I see it less in terms of liberal vs. conservative than I do in the idea of the "new" Democratic Party vs. the old.
"Old" being the traditional New Deal coalition, blue collars plus women plus minorities in whatever combination, though obviously a lot of those folks vote for Obama too. Depending on how you define your "liberalism," I don't necessarily know Obama is more liberal than Hillary. Are we defining "liberalism" on the basis of the war, or the economy? Isn't Obama's health-care plan perceived as (and attacked in Hillary campaign commercials as) less liberal than Clinton's?
My sense is that newer Democrats here tend to be younger, better educated, possibly more affluent. Possibly more suburban or at least as suburban as urban (I think the rural areas are likely to stay Republican forever). Rick Gray, really, might be emblematic of this - an educated guy, former lawyer turned mayor, who rides a motorcycle. That's not to hold him up as any sort of ideological model, or anything like that, but to say: How do you classify someone like that? How do you classify the suburban dadsgrown uneasy about their health insurance or the soccer moms gripped by the creeping fear that this unending war in the Mideast may one day claim their child?
Lancaster County's staunch conservatism plays a role, I think, but then Lancaster County has actually been more conservative in the past, or at least more Republican. I think we're becoming a more urbanized area; that plays a role too.
More urban than Scranton or Pittsburgh? And only 11% of the population in the city has a college degree or higher, and 15% in the County, while statewide it's about 25%. Now that's not the voting public, but maybe it's because more people from a wide range of backgrounds, income levels, etc, live so closely together (beyond physical proximity).
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lanzate
4/23/08
10:03 PM | QUOTE(charlie_crystle @ Apr 23 2008, 08:49 PM) [snapback]381523[/snapback]
More urban than Scranton or Pittsburgh? And only 11% of the population in the city has a college degree or higher, and 15% in the County, while statewide it's about 25%. Now that's not the voting public, but maybe it's because more people from a wide range of backgrounds, income levels, etc, live so closely together (beyond physical proximity).
Wow, very interesting stats there. I remember reading somewhere that Lancaster County is more affluent than the state average as well. So what else is coming into play here that makes us rich if it is not the BS degrees?
QUOTE(gsmart @ Apr 23 2008, 12:18 PM) [snapback]381384[/snapback]
Lancaster County's staunch conservatism plays a role, I think, but then Lancaster County has actually been more conservative in the past, or at least more Republican. I think we're becoming a more urbanized area; that plays a role too.
Gil you are thinking to linear. "Lancaster County's staunch conservatism" is not as 2 dimensional as you would have it defined. In my line of work I am often in contact in with people from the Plain sect community. In almost every area I would have to categorize them as the most liberal group of anyone in lancaster. Peace and social justice, war, health care, caring for the poor, they are so liberal they border on socialist. I loved hearing the media talk about how Amish were voting for Bush in the last election. What a joke. They are pacifists.
The "conservativeism" that you see in Lancaster is a different breed then you see in other parts of the country. It takes living here a long time to understand what that really is.
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gsmart
4/24/08
10:49 AM | QUOTE(lanzate @ Apr 23 2008, 10:03 PM) [snapback]381536[/snapback]
The "conservativeism" that you see in Lancaster is a different breed then you see in other parts of the country. It takes living here a long time to understand what that really is.
Maybe. One of the great themes in American history is urban vs. rural. The arguments more than 200 years ago are the very same arguments in play now - with rural communities somehow seen as more moral, really, less prone to the temptations of the big city, etc; and of course rural communities tend to be more isolated from minorities, tend to require a greater degree of self-sufficiency, all that. And urban areas are or are thought to be the flip side: more tolerant, more cosmpolitan/worldly, better educated, etc.
There are obviously conservatives in the cities just as you can find (if you look hard enough) liberals out in the country, and your Plain example is a good one. But I really do think that as Lancaster County becomes more urbanized - and I use that term loosely, I'm basically speaking about development - that attitudes are changing along with the county itself.
First off, the influx of people who are "not from around here" continues. Over the years I've gotten a heck of a lot of calls from places like Willow Valley, people who moved here from New Jersey or Connecticut and want to know: My God, what's up with the local politics? There are physically more of them here now, in subdivisions in the Hempfields and elsewhere as well as in retirement communities; that has an impact on the dynamic.
But growth itself changes the dynamic. How is it Lancaster County, which prides itself on its conservatism, overwhelmingly supports the special tax specifically designed to circumvent the market and save farmland? That's a liberal idea if there ever was one; people aren't changing their political affiliation on the basis of this, I don't think, but doesn't it make them more amenable to the idea that government itself can be the bulwark against what we see as a negative trend?
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littledutchboy
4/24/08
11:48 AM | QUOTE(lanzate @ Apr 23 2008, 10:03 PM) [snapback]381536[/snapback]
Wow, very interesting stats there. I remember reading somewhere that Lancaster County is more affluent than the state average as well. So what else is coming into play here that makes us rich if it is not the BS degrees?
Gil you are thinking to linear. "Lancaster County's staunch conservatism" is not as 2 dimensional as you would have it defined. In my line of work I am often in contact in with people from the Plain sect community. In almost every area I would have to categorize them as the most liberal group of anyone in lancaster. Peace and social justice, war, health care, caring for the poor, they are so liberal they border on socialist. I loved hearing the media talk about how Amish were voting for Bush in the last election. What a joke. They are pacifists.
The "conservativeism" that you see in Lancaster is a different breed then you see in other parts of the country. It takes living here a long time to understand what that really is.
Being charitable and peace loving doesn't equal liberal and certainly doesn't equal socialism. Liberalism and socialism is about the state redistributing wealth to those that the state believes is disserving. Lancastrians are charitable by nature and do it voluntarily. Big Big difference!
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Lancaster County's conservatism is cultural and has nothing to do with income or education. You have no idea of the "hidden" wealth within the county.
What makes us rich? This county is full of small business owner's; I'm my own example so is my father and his father before him, we didn't need a degree and we certainly don't need government's help.
There is a sea of difference (attitude wise and politically) between a self made man and a university man or person if you prefer, although their income maybe the same.
And please don't argue that education makes a person more enlightened, I will argue they are made more indoctrinated. 
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Lysol54
4/24/08
12:09 PM | QUOTE(littledutchboy @ Apr 24 2008, 11:48 AM) [snapback]381710[/snapback] Being charitable and peace loving doesn't equal liberal and certainly doesn't equal socialism. Liberalism and socialism is about the state redistributing wealth to those that the state believes is disserving. Lancastrians are charitable by nature and do it voluntarily. Big Big difference! [/size]
Lancaster County's conservatism is cultural and has nothing to do with income or education. You have no idea of the "hidden" wealth within the county.
[/size]
What makes us rich? This county is full of small business owner's; I'm my own example so is my father and his father before him, we didn't need a degree and we certainly don't need government's help.
There is a sea of difference (attitude wise and politically) between a self made man and a university man or person if you prefer, although their income maybe the same.
[size="3"]And please don't argue that education makes a person more enlightened, I will argue they are made more indoctrinated.
[size="3"]
Your a small business owner? You spend quite a bit of time posting on here to have your own business. Most people that i know that own their own business don't have time for much besides their family and their business. Guess you really don't work that hard then. |
littledutchboy
4/24/08
12:17 PM | QUOTE(Lysol54 @ Apr 24 2008, 12:09 PM) [snapback]381724[/snapback]
Your a small business owner? You spend quite a bit of time posting on here to have your own business. Most people that i know that own their own business don't have time for much besides their family and their business. Guess you really don't work that hard then.
Make that, "don't have to" work that hard.
What’s your excuse for being on line? Let me guess….HC accessible terminals down at the library or more probably hunkered down in an office cubical somewhere? 
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charlie_crystle
4/24/08
1:15 PM | A university degree doesn't preclude someone from being a self-made man, just as an education doesn't preclude him from being educated. It's just another level of education, and your lack of formal education is not an indicator of success, just an indicator of a lack of a university education. I was a mediocre student, and have succeeded despite my lack of business education, MBA, etc. It's tenacity, hard work, some luck, and the support of great employees, customers, and investors. And it's different from a ton of other small business paths and formulas. It's also why I don't pass over a potential hire because of their resume.
I'm not sure that Lancaster County has any greater concentration of small business than any other county (on, say, a per capita basis). Anyone know where to find this info?
Finally, your definition of socialism seems pretty skewed to me; that's not an attack, just what it looks like from here. Can you be more specific?
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littledutchboy
4/24/08
1:51 PM | QUOTE(charlie_crystle @ Apr 24 2008, 01:15 PM) [snapback]381758[/snapback] A university degree doesn't preclude someone from being a self-made man, just as an education doesn't preclude him from being educated. It's just another level of education, and your lack of formal education is not an indicator of success, just an indicator of a lack of a university education. I was a mediocre student, and have succeeded despite my lack of business education, MBA, etc. It's tenacity, hard work, some luck, and the support of great employees, customers, and investors. And it's different from a ton of other small business paths and formulas. It's also why I don't pass over a potential hire because of their resume.
I'm not sure that Lancaster County has any greater concentration of small business than any other county (on, say, a per capita basis). Anyone know where to find this info?
Finally, your definition of socialism seems pretty skewed to me; that's not an attack, just what it looks like from here. Can you be more specific?
I’ve included farmers as small business owners, and since Lancaster Co. is not dominated by Big businesses and we are economically successful I would deduce that small businesses play a substantial role.
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charlie_crystle
4/24/08
3:11 PM | I'll see if I can find more info about it. Better yet, I'll have one of our interns do it...
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Lysol54
4/24/08
3:26 PM | QUOTE(littledutchboy @ Apr 24 2008, 12:17 PM) [snapback]381728[/snapback] Make that, "don't have to" work that hard. What's your excuse for being on line? Let me guess….HC accessible terminals down at the library or more probably hunkered down in an office cubical somewhere? [size="3"][/size]
Don't have to, or are just lazy? I'd think it was the later. Makes no matter to you why i'm online. I wasn't the one bragging about being self employed now was i? For all you know i'm self employed too. Maybe i'm a programmer, maybe i'm a systems admin? HUM??
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Bigby_M
4/24/08
3:35 PM | QUOTE(littledutchboy @ Apr 24 2008, 01:51 PM) [snapback]381794[/snapback]
I've included farmers as small business owners,
Yeah the farmer across the street from me plants corn in May and picks it in October. The only ones who work less are Santa Clause and George W Bush
As for Obama if you look at the results you will see that more democrats voted in the primary than republicans, about 7000 more.
Could Lancaster County go democrat in a presidential election?
The last time that happened was 1964.
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