Divided they stand

April 23rd, 2008 9:35 am · 1 comment

So Hillary picks up at least 80 delegates, Obama at least 66. Obama still enjoys a healthy lead - but neither candidate now is expected to get the 2,025 delegates needed to win this thing by the end of the primary season in June.

As noted last night, I do think Obama represents the future of the Democratic Party. But Hillary absolutely represents the old New Deal coalition, the Democratic Party of the past; lunchbucket Democrats in particular. Ed Rendell Democrats. And since those folks still dominate the Democratic Party in northeastern de-industrialized states like Pennsylvania, it does stand to reason that an Obama candidacy would have a hard time, or a harder time, winning those states in November.

But I began to think last night that a Hillary-Obama ticket might be an extraordinarily strong general election tandem - with Hillary taking the northeastern working-class states, Obama making the party far more competitive in the south than it’s been. Plus it also welds the “old” Democratic Party together with the “new” branch, recognizing the importance of both; that the stalwarts can’t just be tossed overboard, the insurgents can’t be ignored.

Whether that happens, who knows. I’d guess Hillary wins Indiana, Obama North Carolina. This thing goes down to the wire; but then that itself may not be as damaging to the party as a lot of people think. When’s the last time Democratic voters in so many states had a chance to have such a say in the process - with even the primaries at the tail-end of the season becoming of vital importance? That energizes people, makes them feel as if their vote really counts, gets them involved. Even if this tight race ultimately hands the election to McCain, down the road this might be the best thing that could happen to the Democrats.

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  1 comment  Tags: Election 2008 · Obama · Democratic Party · Hillary

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funkman
4/23/08
10:19 AM
The challenge out of the drawn out process is making sure that the fight doesn't come to lethal blows such that one side alienates the other.

In conversations with both sides of supporters - some to be be bitter (hate the word based on the last few weeks but can't find a better one). So bitter that they'd rather sit out the election if their candidate loses the primary than vote for their party.

That will be the challenge for both candidates over the next few months. Win without without throwing a lethal boomerang.


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