Meanwhile, back at the Mideastern ranch:

At a minimum, the gateway opens for Russia’s deeper involvement in Iran’s ambitious program for civil nuclear energy. But nuclear energy is not the be-all and end-all of Russo-Iranian cooperation. Iran is a crucially important interlocutor for Russia in the field of energy. The Bushehr settlement is a necessary prerequisite if the trust and mutual confidence essential for fuller Russo-Iranian cooperation is to become reality.

Call this the endgame. While we’ve fumbled about in Iraq and Russia (and China and others) have moved steadily to improve their geopolitical position, especially with regards to energy. With its energy consumption rising, Europe now will be forced to rely upon Russia more than ever before (Russia has the world’s largest natural gas reserves); Moscow, by drawing Iran closer into its orbit, also solidifies its clout in the oil game.

As supply becomes concentrated in Russian hands, the Kremlin will find itself in a position to dictate oil and gas prices…  Clearly, the economics of energy supply to Europe are getting highly politicized. Ariel Cohen, a prominent Russia specialist at the US think-tank, Heritage Foundation, who is closely connected with the George W Bush administration, wrote recently, “It is in the US’s strategic interests to mitigate Europe’s dependence on Russian energy. The Kremlin will likely use Europe’s dependence to promote its largely anti-American foreign policy agenda. This would significantly limit the maneuvering space available to America’s European allies, forcing them to choose between an affordable and stable energy supply and siding with the US on some key issues.”