Interesting. The New Republic (registration required) suggests the future of the Republican Party is Rudy Giuliani - specifically because “cultural conservatives” are fading, and are being tossed overboard by a GOP elite that always viewed the issues of abortion and gay marriage as “distasteful but necessary tools to win elections, easily disposable once they no longer served their purpose”:

The roots of this transformation predate September 11 and are partly the result of demographics. The lions of the Christian right–Pat Robertson, Jerry Falwell, James Dobson–no longer dominate Republican politics as they once did. …. In retrospect, these men reached the height of their power in the late ’80s, when, by a 51-to-42 majority, voters agreed that “school boards ought to have the right to fire teachers who are known homosexuals.” Now a decisive 66-to-28 majority disagrees, according to Pew. In 1987, the electorate was roughly split on the question of whether “aids might be God’s punishment for immoral sexual behavior.” Today, 72 percent disagree with that statement, while just 23 percent concur.

Giuliani is on the cutting edge of these trends, seeking to exploit new ideological lines between conservatism and liberalism. He rejects conservatism based on sexuality and reproductive issues; and his personal life amounts to a repudiation of conservatism focused on family structure, parental responsibility, fidelity, and lifelong monogamy. Ed Gillespie, former chairman of the Republican National Committee, notes that, even as voters learn about Giuliani’s more centrist positions, “it does not seem to move his numbers.”