One could make an argument that, by formal analysis, the Yankees have the better offense, defense, starting pitching and bullpen.
Problem: I just went through the last 30 World Series at length. There were 22 in which, by my reckoning, a superior team could be identified. In those 22, the better team went 10-12. (The other eight I considered, conservatively, too close to call. And when I say conservatively I’m not kidding. If I split hairs, the “superiors” would have done even worse.)
The “better” team has won just 10 of the last 30 Fall Classics, it says here. You can argue individual cases here and there, but there’s no way you can argue that being “better,” has been a decisive edge.
And some of those weren’t even close; the 1988 Dodgers, 1990 Reds and 2006 Cardinals honestly weren’t much above average. If the Phillies beat the Yankees, it won’t be one of the 10 biggest “upsets,” (if that’s the right word, and I don’t think it is) of the modern era.
The Phillies’ lefthandedness concerns me. The layoff concerns me. Cole Hamels concerns me. The woes, injury-related or otherwise, of the Phillies’ best player, Chase Utley, concern me.
But the thing that really concerns me is Brad Lidge - again, perhaps the least effective pitcher in major-league baseball this year - on the mound with the season on the line. The more Charlie Manuel handles his bullpen situationally, the better. The deeper the Phils’ starters go into games, the better (but, you know, duh- that’s like saying the team that scores more will win).
There’s no good reason for games to come down to Lidge vs. Rivera, but if they do, the Phillies lose. Absolutely. That’s just reality.
Having said all of that, I’m going to go back to what the Phillies have, as a matter of objective fact, done: three straight division titles. They’ve won five straight postseason series and 18 of their last 22 postseason games. I can’t believe how little has been said about that nationally. Not to play the “media wants New York to win,” card, because that’s boring and dumb, but imagine if the Yankees came into the series with that resume? We’d be hearing about it until our ears bled.
Has there even been a more seasoned, proven, accomplished underdog? Has there ever been an underdog with such bottomless belief in itself? Has that belief ever had a more substantial foundation? I might be drummed out of SABR for claiming that such things matter more than VORP and EqA and SNLVAR, but look at the history. Look at the evidence.
Phillies in seven.
