I was all set to pick the Phillies over the Dodgers until I read the following:
“Actually, about the last three times he’s been out there, I think he’s been good. Also, sometime when you have a decent outing and then you take a break, I think that can be good for you and it has been for him. It gave him time to sit there and think. He is his best coach. I used to tell my hitters that all the time, ‘You’re your best hitting instructor. You’ve got to learn yourself and know thyself.’ It’s the same for a pitcher. You have to study everything about yourself, what you’ve got and how you get people out. Lidge has been more relaxed and it’s just a matter of time until he gets his confidence back. His stuff is still there. He’s been a tremendous pitcher. Believe me, he’ll still be as good as he ever was.”
That was Charlie Manuel talking about Brad Lidge, whose stuff is not there, and who hasn’t been and has given no indication he will soon be as good as he ever was. My favorite wry-smile moment of the Colorado series was in the clincher, when Lidge threw Troy Tulowitski a weak little slider that broke right into the middle of the plate. Tulowitski took it.
TBS color guy: “The slider is back.”
Then they showed the slow-mo replay, with a graphic locating the pitch when it crossed the plate.
Same color guy: “Uh… he’s not gonna get a better pitch to hit than that.”
Manuel used his bullpen thoughtfully and even creatively in the NLDS (when he started the ninth inning of game 4 with Scott Eyre on the hill, I actually stood and applauded, right there in my living room). He actually should have more weapons against the Dodgers, with Chan Ho Park crucially now available and Pedro penciled in.
It appears that the Phils have a slightly better offense (although that’s hair-splitting, and if Manny goes off….) and perhaps better starting pitching (although, again, the Dodgers’ lefties make that about a wash). The Dodgers have the better bullpen, although that might not be a clear edge, if Park and Pedro and J Happ are all healthy and sound, and are a little better defensively.
The problem, as always, is that everything we know about these teams could completely fail to manifest itself over a 4-7-game stretch. That’s why in post-season, short-series baseball, there’s almost no such thing as an upset. And in this series in particular, if you pick the Dodgers, you’re really saying the Phillies have a 48 or 49 percent chance. It’s that close based on what’s knowable.
The Phils beat the Rockies because of 1. The split-advantage their lefthandedness gave them, 2. Charlie out-managing Jim Tracy, which I’ll grant you does not require mastery of game theory and Mensa-level reasoning ability, and 3. The Phils’ bottomless well of professionalism and belief in themselves- that kind of stuff is overrated and often imagined, but that doesn’t mean it doesn’t exist.
No. 1 is, as a matter of objective fact, gone against the Dodgers and there may even be a split-disadvantage. No. 2 is probably gone, since Joe Torre isn’t Jim Tracy and Charlie apparently believes (see italics above) he has his closer back and can go all Jim Fregosi on us.
So the question is, can you pick the Phils based mostly on No. 3? It feels to me like the Phils are going to find a way, but this is the only sports team to which I retain an emotional connection, so I can’t trust that feeling. And I know Brad Lidge can lose this series if Charlie lets him. You can believe based on No. 3, but can you pick them?
Nnnn. Nnnnnn… Nnnnnnnnno. There. I said it.
Dodgers in seven.
