Back from an eventful (in sports, not for me, especially) week off…
Whether they get Roy Halladay or not, right now, at this moment, the Phillies are the best team in baseball. Yes, the Yankees are also 10-1 since the all-star break in a better league, but the Yankees haven’t faced better competition during that stretch (six of the games have been against the Os and As), and haven’t come close to destroying people the way the Phils have.
Since they began a weekend series with the Mets July 3, the Phillies are 18-3 and have outscored their opponents 146-59, or a hair under seven runs/game to less then three. Since the all-star break they’re 10-1, and the run differential is 80-32.
No, the NL East race isn’t over, as some in the media have said. (When these people watch sports, do they actually process what happens?) But it is certainly now the Phillies’ pennant to lose. If they win tonight they’ll be exactly 18 games over .500, which means they’d get to 90 wins by going .500 the rest of the way. Do you see anybody else in that division winning 90?
However, even if the Phils remain the best team in baseball into October, that doesn’t mean they’ll win it all. The best team in baseball fails to win the World Series about as often as not. They weren’t the best team last year, and I think many of the key principals understand that.
But in a postseason series, the team that is both better and has favorable starting pitching matchups will win most of the time. Which is to say: That should still try hard to get Roy Halladay. It’s not easy, though. I can see why Ruben Amaro wouldn’t want to give up Dominic Brown, Kyle Drabek and J.A. Happ - his organization’s best pitching prospect, best position-player prospect and a current rotation starter.
He should anyway. I like Happ, but his non-fastball stuff seems ordinary, and he hasn’t seen many teams more than once, and Happ in the rotation long-haul makes the Phils too lefthanded.
Drabek is also said to lack consistent non-fastball pitches. He’s had elbow surgery and his Class AA numbers (3.06 ERA, 49 Ks-19 BBs in 68 innings) don’t quite match his current rep. Carlos Carrasco seems to be behind Draback mentally but has four pitches and is averaging nine Ks per nine innings. I’m not sure he isn’t still the Phillies’ best pitching prospect.
Brown is 21, has never seen even AA pitching, and is the kind of player (speed, “tools”) scouts tend to overrate.
I’d deal a package of Brown, Drabek and Happ. Amaro apparently won’t, but he might not have to. How about Drabek, Carrasco, Michael Taylor and Jason Donald? Brown, Happ, Taylor and Donald? Brown, Happ, Carrasco and Donald? Taylor, Happ, Carrasco and Donald? I’d do all of those. It’s hard to believe this isn’t doable.
The New York Post reports that something will happen before Friday.
