the power of juice

March 6th, 2009 2:21 pm · 0 comments

It seems legitimate to me to wonder how much PEDs actually work - how much they actually improve performance.

In that vein consider the following piece by FOBPR Bill James. In it, James comes up with a method of rating the most unusual careers in baseball history by assigning point values to a variety of very unusual achievements (having more triples than doubles, a higher OBP than SP, etc.).

James uses 10 categories, five of which relate to a baseball players’ normal prime (72 percent of all prime seasons occur between the ages 24 and 30. Those five:

1. Establishing a new season high in HRs at 31 or later;

2. Increasing or decreasing HR rate after one’s 500th career game;

3. An “off-prime” season OPS 100 pts. higer or lower than career norm;

4. An off-prime peak season in the Triple Crown stats;

5. Establishing a new season high in HRs after 500th career game.

Barry Bonds ranks first in each of these categories except #4, and that only because Met Ott put together a .328-42-151 season at age 20, before the prime; the second-, third- and fourth-best season in history in #4 are all by Bonds. In #3 Bonds has the first, second and eighth-ranked seasons and two other apparent juicers, Sammy Sosa and Luis Gonzalez, are in the top 10.

The following are the combined point totals over all 10 categories James chose:

Rank Player Pl Tot
1 Barry Bonds 1974
2 Mark McGwire 803
3 Sammy Sosa 521
4 Babe Ruth 511
5 Roy Thomas 393
6 Yank Robinson 323
7 Max Bishop 303
8 Andres Galarraga 293
9 Ken Griffey Jr. 293
10 Luis Gonzalez 288
11 Rogers Hornsby 288
12 Cy Williams 283
13 Jack Crooks 278
14 Rafael Palmeiro 268
15 Brady Anderson 262
16 Hank Aaron 246
17 Eddie Yost 244
18 Willie Keeler 240
19 Gene Tenace 237
20 Ken Caminiti 237
21 Albert Belle 237
22 Jack Clark 228
23 Edgar Martinez 227
24 Willie McCovey 222
25 Juan Gonzalez 212

Bonds has more than twice as many points as the guy in second place, and nearly quadruple the points of everyone else. And this is everyone else, every player in the 120-plus year history of major league baseball. And this despite the fact that Bonds gets zero points in several of James’ categories, simply because they don’t have anything to do with Bonds.

Consider also that Mark McGwire finishes second, Sammy Sosa third and Juan Gonzalez 10th.

Understand that James wasn’t writing about PEDs or the Steroid Era, and wasn’t trying to make a point about Bonds. Still…

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  0 comments  Tags: Bill James · performance-enhancing drugs · baseball

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