“I have no idea who’ll win this World Series. But for once, let’s not be mealymouthed. We all know who should win it.”
That was Tom Boswell of The Washington Post, in a preview of the 1983, Phils-Orioles World Series. Boswell was right- the Os were the better team, and in that case the better team won.
The point - Here’s one of the thousands of ways baseball is utterly unique among team sports: It’s not usually hard to identify the better team before hand. It’s impossible to identify the winner.
Which brings us to the Phils and Brewers. The Phillies won more games, although only slightly. They scored 50 more runs. They have more power and speed. They get on base more. They stole more bases and got thrown out less often. Hard as you may find this to believe, they struck out far less.
Phillies pitchers allowed two more runs over 162 two games, which means adjusted for the home ballpark, the effectively allowed fewer. By most serious fielding metrics Phillies were clearly the best fielding team in the National League and the Brewers were among the worst.
The Phillies are by all objective forms of analysis better at hitting, pitching and fielding. If the series goes five games, three of them will be in their ballpark.
Even all that is not nearly enough, because winning in the postseason is often about being better right now. The Phillies went 17-7 in September, winning 13 of their last 16, including a four-game sweep of the Brewers. The Brewers went 10-15 in September. The Phils were four games behind the Brewers on Sept. 10 and finished two games ahead. From mid-Sept. to the end of the regular season the past two years, the Phillies are 26-7.
Milwaukee did win six of its last seven to, with the Mets’ help, seal the Wild Card. The first three of those were a sweep of a bad team (the Pirates) at Milwaukee, using CC Sabathia on short rest and twice winning extra-inning games by beating minor-league relievers. Then they took three of four from the Cubs, a lame-duck team that, at times, approached the games that way. Of course, the Phillies’ final-week opponents were the Braves and Nationals.
The way to beat the Phillies is with lefties, and the Brewers have a great one in Sabathia. Last year he won the Cy Young award, but allowed 15 runs in 15 post-season innings. Some suggested overwork was the problem. He throw 241 innings in ‘07. This year’s he’s thrown 253, and worked on three days’ rest in his last three starts. And in order to pitch more than once against the Phils, he’ll have to go on short rest again.
Other than Sabathia, Milwaukee has a pretty righthanded staff. Other than Sabbathia and Ben Sheets, it’s a pretty mediocre staff. And Sheets is apparently done for the season. Todd Coffey, perhaps their best reliever right now, is ineligible for the postseason.
It wouldn’t surprise me a bit to see the Brewers win this series, but what’s the argument for thinking they will? I just don’t see one. Not even a tiny one. As Keith Law of Scouts, Inc. put it: “Milwaukee has the most weaknesses and the fewest strengths of any NL playoff team.”
I have no idea who’ll win this NLDS. But for once, let’s not be mealymouthed. We all know who should win it.
