Even though it’s rendered moot by the events of this morning, here’s the column from yesterday’s Sunday News:
In 2003 Joe Kerrigan, then the Phillies’ pitching coach, told anyone who’d listen that Brett Myers’ head position at the release point — yanked to the left, toward the first-base line, rather than toward the plate — was a potentially disastrous flaw.
Myers didn’t want to hear it then. He does now. He could, as a veteran of five-plus big-league seasons, have refused last week’s reassignment to the minor leagues.
Failure has beat it into him, and that is said noncritically. Think of your own life. Haven’t you ever had to be hit over the head before you woke up?
Myers’ analysis of his situation, told to The Philadelphia Inquirer last week, is remarkable for its honesty and insight. “I want to be great, and honestly, I realized last year that I’d only be a good starter,” Myers said. “I felt like I had rock-star status as a closer. I enjoyed the bullpen. I felt like they liked me in that role. “But it was easier to get a closer than another starter. [Brad] Lidge has done a hell of a job for us. I don’t think I could do better.”
Anyway, Myers’ symbolic and literal journey to Allentown made a lot of noise, but may end up only a footnote to the real story. Reports from reliable sources say the Phillies tried to trade Myers before sending him down. Reports, similarly reliable, say they’re among the leaders in the C.C. Sabathia sweepstakes.
All of which means it’s now clear that the ballclub, the organization and maybe even the ownership are all in. They really are trying to win the whole deal right now.
You have to have followed this strange franchise and its anonymous, budget-conscious ownership for some time to understand how newsworthy that is.
It’s said to be because General Manager Pat Gillick is retiring, and badly wants to leave an indelible mark. (We’re guessing Ed Wade, for one, is delighted by this news. Since when does the Claire S. Betz Project care what the GM wants?)
Sabathia, a massive lefty, is this year’s trade-deadline must-have pitcher. In the past that alone would have been enough to turn off Gillick, who probably has an embroidered sampler in his office reading, “There isn’t much pitching out there, and it all costs too much!”
Unlike past trade-deadline darlings (Sidney Ponson, Pedro Astacio, Bartolo Colon, etc.), Sabathia deserves it. He threw 257 innings last year, and predictably struggled early this season.
Sabathia’s earned-run average was 7.15 on May 3. Now it’s 3.83, and even with the early struggle his WHIP (walks plus hits per innings) and strikeouts per nine innings are better this year than for his career.
He’s 27 years old, and in 18 starts this year he’s thrown over 100 pitches 15 times, and over 90 the other three. His contract with the Tribe ends at the end of this season.
The Phillies are correct to covet this guy, even if he’s a three-month rental. If he’d move on in 2009 they’d get compensatory draft picks, more valuable than they used to be.
Milwaukee is considered the favorite for Sabathia, understandably. The Brewers’ Class AA affiliate in Huntsville, Ala., is considered not just the most prospect-rich in baseball right now, but in recent memory. That’s what it’s probably going to take: prospects. And that’s what the Phillies don’t have.
That’s one reason why the Phillies’ time is now. Of the other teams in their division, the Marlins and Nationals, as organizations, are coming on fast. The Braves are still run by John Schuerholz, and the Mets are rich.
As for Cleveland, despite being 11 games under .500 and in last place as this is written, they’ve outscored their opponents. Even with Sabathia’s $11 million salary, their team payroll is under $80 million, 15th in the majors.
The Indians’ best hitter (Travis Hafner), all-star catcher (Victor Martinez) and two rotation starters (Jake Westbrook and Fausto Carmona) are all on the DL right now. Recall that they were within a win of the World Series just nine months ago.
It’s not like they are, or should be, in blow-the-whole-thing-up mode. But they are awful at first base, where the regular, Ryan Garko, had a literally and figuratively ominous OPS as of Friday: .666.
Maybe you see where I’m headed, so I’m going to go ahead and say it: The Phillies should offer Ryan Howard for Sabathia.
Hold the torches and pitchforks for just a minute.
First, Howard is having a genuinely bad year, and the strikeouts are only a small part of it. His home-run rate, walk rate and line-drive rate are all down. His on-base percentage is an awful .313 as of Friday, and he’s 35th in the NL in slugging percentage.
I know what you’re saying: But he’s leading the league in RBIs.
Which ought to, but probably won’t, tell you something about RBIs. Runs are the sum of getting on base and hitting with power. RBIs aren’t production, they’re a team-dependent by-product of production.
In truth, if Howard was having a better year he’d probably have fewer RBIs. He’d be getting pitched to differently, getting on base more, and Pat Burrell — the Phillies’ best offensive player right now and a should-be all-star — would be leading the league in RBIs.
Don’t misunderstand. Howard is an excellent player. Anyone can have a bad half-year. But he’s the type of player, and has the type of body, that tends not to age well.
Even at that, he isn’t as young as he seems. To illustrate: Albert Pujols is in his eighth big-league season and has played nearly 1,200 big-league games. Howard is in his third full season (he won the 2005 rookie of the year in just 88 games) and has fewer than 500 big-league games.
Pujols is younger than Howard.
A first baseman who can hit a little is probably the easiest everyday player to replace. The Phillies could get 90 percent of what Howard’s currently giving them from a platoon with their current roster.
And if you’re worried about signing Sabathia going forward, that’s at least as big a concern with Howard. Howard is already making $10 million, and is eligible for arbitration each of the next three years, then becomes a big, slow-moving, no-defense 32-year-old free agent.
The problem with moving Howard, of course, would be public relations. Including the portion of the public in the Phillies’ clubhouse.
A pitcher is always a gamble. Even in the unlikely event they get him, Sabathia could end up not helping the Phils at all. And they are easily good enough to win it all as currently constituted, given baseball’s current, three-tiered crapshoot of a postseason.
But most teams that have done well in modern Octobers have had hard-throwing, game-dominating monster starters. Clemens. Beckett. Schilling. Even Chris Carpenter, for the mediocre 2006 Cardinals.
The Philly media and airwaves are drunk with people begging the local teams to go “all in,” to “get a parade,” and implying that that doesn’t involve hard choices.
Wake up. Nobody wants to bid Ryan Howard adieu but, well, are you serious or not?
