Continuing today’s breakdown of the NCAAs with the Friday games:
Midwest region
Wisconsin-Davidson: I don’t think Davidson is that live a dog. Its front line is substandard, and it’s utterly dependent on a small, not-especially quick jump-shooter. After Kansas-Carolina-UCLA, the Badgers are as good as anybody.
Can Stephan Curry play in the NBA? Sure, in the right situation. But he’s not good enough to create a situation around. Who’s his potential NBA analog? He’s not big enough to be in the Rip Hamilton-Michael Redd group. Sam Cassel? Curry doesn’t seem good enough off the dribble for now. He’s only a sophomore, though.
Wisconsin 77, Davidson 61.
Kansas-Villanova: Not sure Nova is even playing that well. They’ve gotten some help from their opponents and the bracket to this point.
The truth, though, is I don’t get Nova. I watch them and I don’t understand what they’re trying to do. They’ll throw the ball into the post, say to the Cunningham kid, and he’ll score pretty easily, and then they won’t even try to post up for the next half-hour. Sometimes they go five possessions without throwing a meaningful pass. They run around like crazy men one possession, then stand around and watch Scottie Reynolds dribble the next. Clearly I’m missing something.
People are saying they’ve got to slow Kansas down. Let’s see the Wildcats get a handle on what they’re doing before they take a shot at someone else.
I realize that by saying this, I’m virtually guaranteeing a Nova win, but I don’t see how this game can be close.
Kansas 88, Villanova 65.
South Region
Stanford-Texas: This does not strike me as a world-class coaching matchup. Stanford is built around the 7-foot Lopez brothers (although, remarkably, they won early in the year without leading scorer Brook Lopez, who missed the first semester with academic issues).
Texas’ fulcrum is point guard and future pro D.J. Augustin. My sense is that Texas can deal with the Stanford’s bigs better than Stanford can deal with Augustin. Texas’ Connor Atchley, a 6-10, 42% 3-point shooter, could be a key figure.
Texas 83, Stanford 79.
Memphis-Michigan State: Tom Izzo might be the best coach in this sport. His teams play closest to an NBA style than any college team- the Spartans can do a million things and adapt endlessly to the opponent. They also have a little of that San Antonio Spurs, turn-it-on-when-it-counts thing.
The Spartans have to get numbers from Drew Neitzel, who’s guardable, especially by as athletic a bunch as Memphis.
When John Calipari scoffs to the media about his team’s foul shooting he’s really talking to his players, of course. It’s true that FT shooting can be overblown, at least in the sense that getting more points from the line than the opponents wins more games than FT %.
But the four second-round games in this region were decided by a combined total of eight points. Of course foul shooting can decide games like that.
This should be a fierce one. Flip a coin.
Memphis 68, Michigan State 66.
