More fun with numbers

February 10th, 2008 9:42 pm · 0 comments

Roger Clemens’ team of lawyers and agents released a report last month that purported to prove Clemens’ career arc and late-career success was not that unusual, and do not suggest PED use. In a piece in today’s New York Times some professors from Penn’s Wharton School of Business deconstruct the report and find that, unsurprisingly, it’s fraudulent.

The report referred to a group of pitchers who had long careers and performed well into their 30s (Curt Schilling, Randy Johnson, etc.). But the point about Clemens is his performance declined around age 30, to the point where his career was considered in jeopardy. Then he went crazy in his late 30s and early 40s. The data in the report, viewed correctly and objectively, doesn’t refute that. It supports it.

The professors were careful - to their credit - to point out that they are not suggesting Clemens is guilty, just that the report does nothing to support his innocence.

This is from a statement by Randy Hendricks, Clemens’ agent: “Roger Clemens is not like every other pitcher in this group. He is considered perhaps the best pitcher of his generation. The professors make the mistake of thinking that his career arc should look like the arc of every other pitcher in their selected group.”

No, dude, you make that mistake. Team Clemens performance since the Mitchell Report has not, shall we say, proven the adage that a good offense is the best defense.

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  0 comments  Tags: performance-enhancing drugs · baseball

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