From the “Like I have a clue,” Dept.:
Jacksonville at New England: The Jags are this year’s designated defense-and-ground-game entry.
Except that Pittsburgh scored 29 points against the Jags last week, 22 in the second half, Ben Roethlisberger throwing for 337 yards, despite:
1. Playing without Willie Parker and thus without a ground game (43 rush yds, 1.7/carry).
2. Four turnovers, one one of them an interception returned 63 yards for a touchdown.
3. Eschewing extra-points for failed two-point conversions twice.
I suppose I don’t have to tell you that the Patriots have a much, much better offense than the Steelers.
Pats 44, Jags 17.
San Diego at Indianapolis: No team needed the bye week more than the Colts, who’ve been as beat up as any team in the league this year, making their regular season almost as impressive as New England’s.
San Diego beat the Colts 23-21 Nov. 11 (week 10), but the Colts were without Marvin Harrison, Dallas Clark and Anthony Gonzalez, and Adam Vinatieri missed a 29-yard FG that would have won it.
Don’t put a whole lot of stock in that one.
Also, stud TE Antonio Gates is out with an injury sustained last week, free up Bob Sanders, the Colts terrific safety, to create havoc elsewhere.
Although they’ve been hot lately the Chargers look like a dysfunctional family. Lots of funny body language there.
Colts 38, Chargers 13.
Seattle at Green Bay: The NFC games are much harder to figure. I still think Brett Favre has a five-interception game in him. If it comes here, Seattle moves on. It probably comes next week, against a team (the Giants or Cowboys) with a big-time pass rush.
The Packers’ defense over the Seahawks offense is the decisive matchup here. These are two teams with huge advantages at their home stadium. The Packers are 7-1 at home, Seahawks 3-5 on the road.
Packers 27, Seahawks 20.
New York at Dallas: If Tony Romo and TO are right, it’s hard to imagine Dallas losing here. They’re just a clearly better, more athletic team with fewer weaknesses.
But Romo has a problem, and it isn’t Jessica Simpson, it’s a thumb injury sustained against the Eagles. A thumb injury can be a big deal for a QB - remember Kurt Warner?
The Giants do two things really well that matter a lot: rush the passer and block people. But Romo/TO - again, if healthy - frustrate a pass rush by making plays on the run, out of chaos, as well as anybody.
Eli Manning had unconscious day on third down against the Bucs last week. But the Giants’ WRs are just OK, and now’s about the time injured TE Jeremy Shockey will be missed. The guess here is Eli can’t do it again.
Cowboys 28, Giants 23
Yeah, I know. I’m picking all the favorites. How gutsy. What can I tell you? The NFL playoff record of teams coming off a bye week against teams that played last week in well-documented and, in all four of these cases, the bye team is the better team.
The margin of victory will tell whether I’ve got these games figured. I really think the two AFC games are blowouts. Call me on that, if I’m wrong.
