Scoring margin as a method of evaluating football teams has become as devalued as neoconservatism. Or maybe communism.
Giving weight to scoring margin encourages bad sportsmanship and general ugliness, the thinking goes. The Bowl Championship Series directed the people who do its computer rankings to remove any consideration of scoring margin from their formulas in 2005, and most of them brag having done so on their web sites.
That’s what we say. It’s not what we think.
Which brings us to the Colts and the Patriots in Indy tomorrow. The Patriots opened as a five-point favorite. The vast majority of fan and media observers seem to think the Pats will win, maybe win big, and are clearly the better team?
Why?
Both teams are undefeated. The Colts are the defending champs. The Colts have played a tougher schedule. The Colts will be at home, indoors, where they have one of the sport’s bigger home-field advantages.
But the Colts have outscored their opponents 32-14, the Pats 41-15. Margin of victory is the exact reason people are more impressed with the Pats. Even though many of those people would agree that the Pats have gone out of their way to run up some scores in their despressingly dumb campaign to gain respect or make a statement or something.
I’m not saying that’s wrong. I’m saying that while victory margin can be deceptive, and can encourage running up the score, it’s not meaningless, and most people intuitively know that, even as they pretend otherwise.
Oh: Patriots 33, Colts 28.
