Predicting the Lancaster-Lebanon League Section 3 race is like getting a tooth yanked.
This race usually has so many twists and turns and subplots that it’s often painful to make any kind of prognostication.
And it seems that more times than not, this section race ends up in some sort of a goofy tie – like last year, when Lancaster Catholic and Lampeter-Strasburg shared the hardware. And we all know what L-S went on to do after that.
After putting all the slips in a hat, shaking them up and picking them out, here’s what I came up with for my Section 3 predictions. And do remember, this is for entertainment purposes only.
L-L League Section 3, in predicted order of finish:
1. Lancaster Catholic – I like the Crusaders for any number of reasons, first and foremost because they’ll return arguably the best quarterback in the league in junior Kyle Smith, who will try and top his breakout sophomore season, when he passed for nearly 2,600 yards and 27 touchdowns. He’s a special player, and will pilot an offense that has the potential to be pretty gosh darn potent. Coach Bruce Harbach is high on new running backs Quinn Houser and Ohio transfer Jordan Stewart, and Smith will have athletic, playmaking targets galore (led by ‘Freddy’ Jankowski, who averaged 26 yards per grab last season). Catholic is also loaded in the trenches (blue-chipper Nick Schmalhofer is a stud on both sides of the ball) and on D. And the Crusaders should have plenty of depth. Catholic’s non-league slate is a good one: Trinity, a state-ranked team, right out the chute, then Ephrata (which has scrimmaged well, from what I’ve heard), followed by a trip to Manheim Central for a game that is already being billed as the L-L League’s Super Bowl. If the Crusaders can get through that stretch no worse than 2-1, they should have some excellent momentum heading into Section 3 play. Catholic is the team to beat. Insert bull’s-eye here.
2. Lampeter-Strasburg – I know the Pioneers – who won the District 3 Triple-A title and advanced to the PIAA semifinals last fall — got gutted by graduation losses. But when I saw their first scrimmage against Manheim Township, I was mucho impressed. The front four on defense (ends Zach Halpin and Christian DelRocini and tackles Matt Maser and Ryan Brown) was mighty impressive, and new QB Blake Brubaker ran the offense well and he made a couple of big sticks from his safety spot. This program has a rep for reloading now. Despite wholesale changes, I don’t see these guys dipping too much – hence me picking them this high. The Cocalico opener should be a real dandy, and definitely circle Sept. 26 at home against Lancaster Catholic. That’s the Game of the Year in Section 3. Not sure if they can repeat in Triple-A. But with this defense, anything is possible.
3. Donegal – The Indians did lose some top talent, like rugged fullback Blaine Miller, a three-time 1,000-yard rusher. It looks like Kyle Witmer will step into Donegal’s coveted starting fullback spot. He’s got some big shoes to fill. But he has an experienced line to run behind. That line includes RG Tanner Edgell, an all-star at Conestoga Valley last fall who transferred back to Donegal for his senior season. The D should also be in good hands with DE Morgan Rupp, a returning all-star, back in the mix. Devon Brumfield appears to have the edge at QB. If that line can keep him upright, and if Witmer can be as rugged as Miller, I think Donegal will have a major say in the race. Watch out for the Indians, who have the goods to get back in Districts for the second time in three years.
4. Northern Lebanon – The Vikings were last year’s Section 3 feel-good team, roaring to a 6-0 start and then knocking off Lancaster Catholic in Week 10 before advancing to the District 3 Triple-A playoffs for the first time since 1991. Two key cogs are gone from last year’s team – two-way lineman Austin Hormel and leading rusher Travis Dresch – but there are enough weapons back in the stable for Northern Lebanon to contend again. And the Vikes might have the best schedule in the L-L League: They get all three non-league games at home, followed by short road trips to Annville-Cleona and Elco. So the Vikes won’t leave Lebanon County until Week 6. They have to use that to their advantage. Do so, and a return trip to Districts should very much be in the cards for these guys. And they definitely have Catholic’s attention, that’s for sure. The rematch is October 10 in Lancaster.
5. Columbia – The Crimson Tide had a high-powered offense a year ago, featuring 1,800-yard passer Mike Seibert, speedy WR Colby Tuell (and his 10 TD grabs) and league rushing champ Ben Guiles – who also scored a league-best 22 TDs. Those guys are gone, along with All-State lineman Brian Groff. The good news: OT Kevin McCarty, RB Dakotah Lightfoot and WR Yahya McIntyre – who were all key cogs last year – are set to return. But with a new QB (Matt Kreiser) and some new guys in the trenches, don’t expect the Tide to average 413 yards a game again this season. But do expect Columbia to challenge. And absolutely, positively expect Columbia to be in the postseason. The Tide is in Single-A this season, so even just a couple of victories should get them in Districts. Of course, they’ll be thinking bigger than just a few wins. I hope.
6. Elco – Wish I could figure these guys out. It seems like every year the Raiders make a run and get themselves in the race, but something wacky happens and then they struggle for a week or two. One of the team’s themes this season is finishing the job. Elco led or was in the game at halftime multiple times last season, but failed to seal the deal on more than once occasion. Junior dual-threat QB Arron Achey returns for his third season under center. He’s definitely someone to keep an eye on. Don’t overlook Elco. If the Raiders can put all the pieces together (and find a way to finish) they might pull off an upset or two.
7. Annville-Cleona – Home at last. The Little Dutchmen will be back in their home digs this season, after spending the last two years playing 20 road games while the school – and stadium – got some upgrades. I think having that home-field edge will definitely help this group, which does return a really nice nucleus from last year. Yeah, I know that group went 1-9. But they played 10 road games and took some lumps. I’m guessing that’ll payoff for this crew, which is jonesing to get some home cooking and dole out some payback on their own turf. This section is a tad top-heavy at the moment (Catholic, L-S), but I think A-C is ready to start knocking on the door again.
8. Pequea Valley – The Braves should have one of the top offensive units in the league this season. That has a lot to do with returning All-State WR Sean Persch, who piled up more than 2,400 all-purpose yards a year ago. PV will get him the ball in every way imaginable. But the Braves need to do two things: stop people on defense (they were dead last in the L-L League in team defense and points allowed last fall) and cut down on the turnovers. Junior QB Mike Rice – who has Persch at his disposal – was picked off 25 times last season, and the Braves’ turnover ratio was a dismal minus-31 (43 turnovers, 12 forced). If PV can get those numbers turned around, they should create more than enough offense to get back in the W column. Hey, sometimes baby steps aren’t a horrible thing.
