Oh to be inside the mind of Steve Schmidt right now.
Schmidt is the chief message man of Republican John McCain’s campaign, and if the pressure is on the GOP nominee to have a “game-changer” during tonight’s final debate with Democrat Barack Obama, Schmidt is the one carrying the load. What is McCain’s message tonight? What new proposal or soundbyte can McCain unveil tonight to turn this race in his favor? Is it too little too late?
RealClearPolitics.com in its analysis of the Electoral College map shows that even if Obama loses Virginia, Florida, Ohio and Missouri - all states the two nominees are running neck-and-neck - he still becomes president. NBC News political director Chuck Todd said this morning that all Obama has to do is win one of the battleground states like Colorado (just 9 delegates) to change his address to 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. That’s not a pretty picture.
Doesn’t mean the country can’t swing the other way quickly (Carter-Reagan, 1980), and McCain absolutely positively must begin that swing tonight when about 70 million people will be tuning in. BTW, talk about McCain’s bad luck, but this last crucial debate takes place when the Philadelphia Phillies go for their first World Series berth in 15 years, so a lot of TV sets in the vital Philadelphia market will be tuned into baseball, not politics.
Here’s what to watch for tonight as the two clash at Hofstra University, N.Y., and as always, have the debate on your TV and your computer logged in here to Bird’s-Eye View for running commentary starting at 8:30 p.m.:
Something in the Ayers: Obama baited McCain during a recent television interview, basically called McCain yellah’ for not directly addressing the William Ayers topic with Obama face-to-face at their debate last week. McCain’s response was that tonight he will bring up Ayers, the former Vietnam-era radical turned education professor who tenuously worked on education reform initiatives with Obama during the 90s.
It was classic bait-and-switch. Why? Obama benefits when McCain brings this stuff up. McCain comes across looking desperate, angry and off-message when it comes to the number one issue of this election, the economy. McCain’s negatives have soared in voter polls as he’s gone negative.
Money, money, money, money, money, money, money … Money!
If McCain is going to turn this election around, he has to tonight draw sharp distinctions between his plan and Obama’s plan for the economy. How you do it is tricky because for months McCain’s trying to make Obama out to be a tax-and-spend big-government liberal, and the message hasn’t worked so far. McCain’s going to trumpet his new proposals, especially the tax-free unemployment benefits, allowing the feds to buy up troubled mortgages and renegotiate the loans and cuts in the capital gains taxes.
Democrats, Democrats, everywhere
I’m starting hear a new thread in the McCain message, that if Obama wins and the Democratic majorities in Congress carry over into the new legislative session, that spells no check or balance on the federal government (well, except for the John Roberts Supreme Court). I wonder if McCain will appeal to conservatives tonight by saying he’s the only candidate capable of stopping the Nancy Pelosi’s and Harry Reid’s.
Stay in harbor or set sail
Obama’s in a relatively safe position right now. He’s up in the polls nationally and in states that can swing the election in his favor, and a majority of Americans see him as the best fit for remedying the country’s economic ills. Does he go on the attack tonight, come across as over-confident or does he play it safe so as not to upset the balance? My bet is he does just as he’s done the entire race and in the previous two debates, play it cool and not let McCain get under his skin. One of my theories for why Obama lost Pennsylvania during the April 22 primary is the Philadelphia debate where ABC News hammered away at him, and he clearly was not comfortable under fire (not that I can blame him because the questions were quite trivial).
