It’s no wonder why Republican John McCain would want to avoid a vote right now on bailout legislation.
Let’s say some sort of legislation comes out and is approved by the House. It would go to the Senate, and let’s assume the votes breakdown by party. Remember, Democrat Barack Obama by not taking any specific positions has given himself more flexibility politically, so no matter how he votes he won’t take too many hits to his campaign for president.
McCain, on the other hand, doesn’t have that luxury.
Let’s say in Scenario A, the Democratic caucus, all 49 of them, votes against the bailout legislation. The two independents split, and the GOP caucus sans McCain votes for the legislation. The vote count would be 50 to 49 with McCain yet to cast his vote.
In Scenario A, if he votes with the Democrats, Obama can say he followed his and the other Democrats’ lead, making McCain look like a follower rather than a leader. McCain would also likely alienate members of his own party, which right now in such a close election, McCain cannot afford to do.
If, on the other hand, McCain votes with the GOP caucus, Obama can paint McCain as a person who’s more interested in bailing out Wall Street - especially if the provisions do not include prohibitions from taxpayer-funded golden parachutes for CEOs and other executives - and not paying attention to Main Street. A lot of Americans are angry that $700 billion to $1 trillion in tax money could be going to Wall Street companies whose independent actions landed them in hot water. Obama by voting against the legislation is on their side, and Obama can once again tie McCain to Bush, whose administration proposed this bailout in the first place.
Starting to see the political perils for McCain?
In Scenario B, let’s keep the vote counts the same, only now the Democratic caucus votes for the bailout. They had to. The financial crisis required Congress to act. Obama comes out and says the bill wasn’t perfect, and as president he would work on a better piece of legislation, but the dire situation compelled him to vote in the best interest of the American economy. Main Street’s suffering, and this would allow the economy to chug along.
Now, McCain is once again the swing vote, and let’s say McCain votes against the bailout. Obama can ripped McCain for being a do-nothing, acting passive while the American economy suffers. And if McCain sides with the Democrats, he cedes the issue politically to Obama.
Now … is it any wonder why McCain wants to delay or hold off on voting?
Update: Oh, and lest we forget. If McCain casts a vote that leaves the Senate tied 50-50, then the tiebreaker goes to the president of the Senate, who happens to be the Vice President of the United States.
Don’t think Obama would avoid making hay out of McCain putting the decision in the hands of Dick Cheney and the Bush administration.
Get the feeling there’s a lot of yellow caution lights flashing around the McCain campaign right now.
