Bird’s-Eye View

I know this will get lost in the analysis of John McCain’s acceptance speech and local buzz about Barack Obama’s appearance, but think about this:

McCain spoke to about 18,000 in St. Paul, Minn.’s Xcel Center for his convention speech. On the same night, in the Republican stronghold of Lancaster County, an area U.S. Sen. Bob Casey Jr. said was the toughest place for Democrats to perform well in during elections, Obama drew 15,000 to Buchanan Park. Granted, the city is a bastion for progressive Democratic politics, but nonetheless …

One of the curiousities of this election, though, is how Obama’s meteoric rise and presence, which attracted 80,000 to his convention acceptance speech a week ago in Denver and draws huge crowds wherever he goes, hasn’t translated into huge victory margins among the polls of registered voters. Remember the eve of the Pennsylvania primary in April? Obama spoke to tens of thousands in Philadelphia, jammed places like the Lancaster train station with wildly enthusiastic crowds and U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton could only fill half the Zembo Shrine in Harrisburg, an area thought to be one of her strongholds. Clinton won 55 to 45 percent.

Is it closet racism? Is it voters find themselves uncomfortable with Obama’s experience when it actually comes to choosing him in the voting booth? One seasoned pollster has told me it’s incredibly difficult to quantify just why Obama has trouble translating these huge rallies into huge victory margins come election day, and it’s a wonder if that won’t continue on to Nov. 4.