The beating heart of Hillary Clinton’s case to superdelegates is a.) Barack Obama cannot beat John McCain in critical swing states like Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, and b.) I’ve won the must-win blue states like Massachusetts and California during the primary.
It’s an argument compelling enough to keep her in the race. While her and Obama’s platforms are essentially the same with just a few differences, while both appeal to vital sectors of the Democratic Party, while both inspire the kind of fervor needed to end the 7-year hold Republicans have had on 1600 Pennsylvania Ave., what set her apart is her experience as first lady of Arkansas, first lady of the United States and nearly two terms in the U.S. Senate. Obama hasn’t been vetted. She has. She survived. Ready on Day One.
But the beating heart is starting to flow with worry.
Last night during the E Channel ABC News pillow fight debate, former Bill Clinton staffer George Stephanopoulos asked a simple but loaded question: From Clinton’s point-of-view, can Obama defeat McCain in the November election.
She avoided the question at first, instead building McCain up as the American political Goliath and she as something more than David with a slingshot. “I also know, having now gone 16 years of being on the receiving end of what the Republican Party dishes out, how important it is that we try to go after every vote, everywhere we possibly can, to get those electoral votes that we’re going to need to have the next (Democratic) president elected.”
Stephanopoulos pounced. “Do you think Senator Obama can do that? Can he win?”
“Yes, yes, yes,” Clinton responded. “Now, I think I can do a better job.”
Of course she does. Nobody can fault her for thinking that. Afterall, that’s why you raise tens of millions of dollars and put your legacy and health on the line spending 18-hour days flying and riding across this country, meeting voters in diners and at massive rallies, selling your platform, making commercials, hoping for a chance. Except now, she’s on record in front of a primetime audience conceding that yes, indeed, Obama can beat McCain.
There’s still the Clinton argument, though, Obama cannot beat McCain in critical swing states where Democrats need crucial electoral votes. And a look at Realclearpolitics.com bears this out: McCain’s up on Obama in Florida by an average of 11.7 percent and 5.2 percent in Ohio, the two states Al Gore and John Kerry respectively met their Waterloo. Obama, though, is up 2.2 percent in Pennsylvania, a squeaker for sure.
Those numbers have generally stayed the same for several weeks now, but today Gallup Poll conducted a survey through the first 15 days of April, as the Rev. Jeremiah Wright controversy began to simmer down but Bitterpalooza hit Pennsylvania like a tsunamai, and as the Clinton camp took hits on Bosnia and Mark Penn. Here’s what they found, according to CNN.com:
The latest Gallup Poll conducted during the first 15 days in April, consisting of more than 13,000 registered voters shows Obama and Clinton ahead by 4 points in so called “purple” or swing states with 47 percent to McCain’s 43 percent, with a margin of error of plus or minus 1 point.
In “blue” states where John Kerry won by more than 6 percentage points in 2004, Obama has a comfortable double-digit lead, while McCain leads by a slightly smaller margin in the “red” states where George Bush prevailed by more than 6 points.
Clinton has the same lead over McCain in purple states, but she does not fare as well as Obama in the “blue” states and also trails McCain by a larger margin than Obama in the traditionally Republican “red” states.
The remaining purple swing states where Bush or Kerry won by 5 points or fewer in 2004 include: New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, Florida, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Oregon.
I will not believe the Democratic primary is over until it actually is. But I think her answer during the pillow fight debate and the Gallup Poll makes her argument to the superdelegates a little harder today.
Update: Lois Herr, a Clinton supporter and executive director of the Lancaster County Democratic Committee, weighs in:
“I believe that she would have a better time dealing with McCain. She will beat him more easily. I also feel Democrats are so upset with the Bush legacy, there’s no way on Earth we’re going to allow McCain to win and have a third Bush term. I feel Democrats will be united either way.”
On Obama getting the elbows from Clinton and the moderators:
“His answers (last night) were rambling. For the first time, I think he was not on message.”
