Bill Neff, who finished fourth out of four candidates in the GOP primary, is now running a write-in campaign to succeed retiring state Sen. Gib Armstrong.
This probably seems like a great idea, what with all the expressed desire for “change” voters seem to be expressing in registering and voting for Barack Obama, and the general disgust with Harrisburg’s continuing shenanigans (most notably the failure to enact any meaningful property tax relief).
The challenge of running a write-in campaign, however, is significant.
Here’s a look at the odds stacked against Neff’s bid, in order of importance from least to most significant.
1. It’s going to be a long ballot, with the state Senate race pretty far down (below President, Congress, attorney general, auditor general and treasurer), which might lead to voter fatigue before they arrive at the chore of writing in Neff’s name.
2. Assuming someone will organize debates — and there should be a good number, given that this is an open seat and the retiring incumbent held the seat for 24 years — on what basis would a debate organizer invite Neff to participate?
Without his name on the ballot, what distinguishes Neff from any other constitutionally qualified resident of the district who might like to get on stage with the candidates and kick the issues around? I suppose Neff could cite the seriousness with which he’s been treated in the Sunday News but that might not last and it might not be enough to overcome another candidate’s objection to his participation.
3. Getting folks to write you in requires extraordinary support (both deep and wide), something Neff’s primary campaign did not seem to generate. He finished fourth, with 2,043 votes, not even half the support enjoyed by third-place finisher Paul Thibault.
I suppose it’s possible to believe that independent voters will show more enthusiasm than did registered Republicans but a campaign capable of generating a successful write-in campaign should have been able to sign up a good number of independents to support Neff in the GOP primary. There’s little evidence that he accomplished anything of the sort.
Bottom line: Neff’s write-in campaign is not hopeless but it’s pretty close.